Since last year, the Bitcoin asset strategy of the Japanese listed company Metaplanet has attracted significant attention, with its stock price peaking at over 40 times. Public information shows that the company currently holds 20,000 Bitcoins, ranking as the sixth largest Bitcoin treasury company in the world. However, despite Bitcoin's strength since April this year, Metaplanet's stock price has retraced over 50% after peaking in June, and the decoupling from BTC has become increasingly evident.
The endogenous variables in the cryptocurrency market are weakening.
From an initial hotel company to now holding 20,000 bitcoins, Metaplanet has successfully implemented the "buy coins - pull stocks - finance - buy coins again" model in less than two years.
In April 2024, as Bitcoin recovered from its low, the company initiated an increase in share issuance and convertible bond financing, and purchased its first batch of BTC; after the stock price rose, the company further increased its holdings through shareholder issuance and low-interest loans. As of early September 2025, the company held approximately 20,000 coins, with a cryptocurrency market value exceeding $2 billion, ranking as the sixth largest Bitcoin treasury company (behind only MicroStrategy, MARA, XXI, BitcoinStandardTreasuryCompany, and Bullish).
In addition, the company has set a year-end target of 30,000 coins and will continue to buy according to the established fundraising plan in September to October; President Simon Gerovich stated at the special shareholder meeting that they aim to accumulate 210,000 BTC by 2027 (approximately 1% of the supply).
As of the market close on September 2 (UTC+9), Metaplanet reported at 832 yen, down approximately 57% from the June high of 1,930 yen. Based on holding 20,000 coins and valuing BTC at approximately 108,000–111,000 USD, the treasury market value is about 2.16–2.22 billion USD, corresponding to "market value / holding market value" ≈ 1.8× (approximate mNAV premium, excluding other assets/liabilities).
The divergence between stock prices and cryptocurrency prices is not just a noise from Metaplanet alone (as detailed in my article "From Misalignment to Joint Decline: The Coin-Stock Link Reaches a Crossroads"), nor can it be simply explained by a statement like "the fundamentals have worsened." The key lies in the weakening of intrinsic variables within the cryptocurrency market—according to SoSoValue, in August, the net outflow from Bitcoin spot ETFs was approximately $751 million for the month; the funding rate for Bitcoin has fallen from a high in mid-July to near zero, with several instances of turning negative during this period. Marginal buying has cooled, leverage momentum has weakened, and the re-coupling threshold between BTC treasury stocks and BTC has been raised.
Is PUBG a desperate measure or a poison to quench thirst?
According to reports, Metaplanet shareholders have approved the increase of authorized shares and the establishment of preferred stock terms, with a maximum issuance amount of approximately $3.8 billion. The proceeds will mainly be used to continue purchasing Bitcoin and expand the treasury. In the Japanese market, preferred stocks are not common; while fixed dividends and liquidation preferences bring funding certainty, they also mean immediate dilution and governance discounts. The market will assess the effectiveness of this "blood transfusion" based on "whether it can be converted into upward momentum."
What determines the effectiveness is not whether the issuance can be successfully completed, but rather what kind of crypto β is encountered after the capital enters.
According to the company's plan, by the end of this year, the Bitcoin holdings will be increased to 30,000 coins, corresponding to three development paths for the future:
Fast Pace (β Rebound): If Bitcoin spot ETF shows significant net inflow again, the company has the motivation to quickly buy up an additional 10,000 coins in September and October, with the average price roughly falling within the range of current prices. The effect is a rapid expansion of the on-hand BTC, while the mNAV premium stabilizes or even recovers temporarily; the cost is an increase in the average holding price, making it more sensitive to retracements, compounded by the "rigid cost" of preferred stock dividends, amplifying the downside elasticity.
Medium Rhythm (β Neutral): If the Bitcoin price is primarily fluctuating in the short term, the company is more likely to buy in batches, pushing the holdings to the range of 27,000 to 30,000 coins by the end of the year. This approach reduces the risk of buying at high levels, but dilution and priority discounts may offset valuation elasticity, causing the stock price to largely operate close to mNAV, and the premium is likely to struggle to expand significantly.
Slow Pace (β Weakening): If capital continues to net outflow, the price of Bitcoin will struggle to maintain high levels, and the company's mNAV premium will continue to converge or even reverse; the dilution expectations from preferred stock/issuance and the rise in financing costs, combined with the collapse of market sentiment, will amplify the downward momentum of stock prices, leading to a downward shift in the valuation center, or there may be passive deleveraging pressure.
Conclusion
In short, while the treasury model has brought short-term growth momentum, its vulnerabilities have gradually emerged against the backdrop of market fluctuations and macroeconomic changes. After choosing to go all-in on Bitcoin, Metaplanet's future is no longer in its own hands, but rather has entrusted its fate to the crypto market. As the crypto market increasingly diversifies its compliant purchasing methods, from value traps to becoming market consensus, Metaplanet, as a path follower, may find itself in an even more difficult situation.
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After the stock price's 50% Slump, will Metaplanet's Bitcoin bet continue?
Author: Zhou, ChainCatcher
Since last year, the Bitcoin asset strategy of the Japanese listed company Metaplanet has attracted significant attention, with its stock price peaking at over 40 times. Public information shows that the company currently holds 20,000 Bitcoins, ranking as the sixth largest Bitcoin treasury company in the world. However, despite Bitcoin's strength since April this year, Metaplanet's stock price has retraced over 50% after peaking in June, and the decoupling from BTC has become increasingly evident.
The endogenous variables in the cryptocurrency market are weakening.
From an initial hotel company to now holding 20,000 bitcoins, Metaplanet has successfully implemented the "buy coins - pull stocks - finance - buy coins again" model in less than two years.
In April 2024, as Bitcoin recovered from its low, the company initiated an increase in share issuance and convertible bond financing, and purchased its first batch of BTC; after the stock price rose, the company further increased its holdings through shareholder issuance and low-interest loans. As of early September 2025, the company held approximately 20,000 coins, with a cryptocurrency market value exceeding $2 billion, ranking as the sixth largest Bitcoin treasury company (behind only MicroStrategy, MARA, XXI, BitcoinStandardTreasuryCompany, and Bullish).
In addition, the company has set a year-end target of 30,000 coins and will continue to buy according to the established fundraising plan in September to October; President Simon Gerovich stated at the special shareholder meeting that they aim to accumulate 210,000 BTC by 2027 (approximately 1% of the supply).
As of the market close on September 2 (UTC+9), Metaplanet reported at 832 yen, down approximately 57% from the June high of 1,930 yen. Based on holding 20,000 coins and valuing BTC at approximately 108,000–111,000 USD, the treasury market value is about 2.16–2.22 billion USD, corresponding to "market value / holding market value" ≈ 1.8× (approximate mNAV premium, excluding other assets/liabilities).
The divergence between stock prices and cryptocurrency prices is not just a noise from Metaplanet alone (as detailed in my article "From Misalignment to Joint Decline: The Coin-Stock Link Reaches a Crossroads"), nor can it be simply explained by a statement like "the fundamentals have worsened." The key lies in the weakening of intrinsic variables within the cryptocurrency market—according to SoSoValue, in August, the net outflow from Bitcoin spot ETFs was approximately $751 million for the month; the funding rate for Bitcoin has fallen from a high in mid-July to near zero, with several instances of turning negative during this period. Marginal buying has cooled, leverage momentum has weakened, and the re-coupling threshold between BTC treasury stocks and BTC has been raised.
Is PUBG a desperate measure or a poison to quench thirst?
According to reports, Metaplanet shareholders have approved the increase of authorized shares and the establishment of preferred stock terms, with a maximum issuance amount of approximately $3.8 billion. The proceeds will mainly be used to continue purchasing Bitcoin and expand the treasury. In the Japanese market, preferred stocks are not common; while fixed dividends and liquidation preferences bring funding certainty, they also mean immediate dilution and governance discounts. The market will assess the effectiveness of this "blood transfusion" based on "whether it can be converted into upward momentum."
What determines the effectiveness is not whether the issuance can be successfully completed, but rather what kind of crypto β is encountered after the capital enters.
According to the company's plan, by the end of this year, the Bitcoin holdings will be increased to 30,000 coins, corresponding to three development paths for the future:
Fast Pace (β Rebound): If Bitcoin spot ETF shows significant net inflow again, the company has the motivation to quickly buy up an additional 10,000 coins in September and October, with the average price roughly falling within the range of current prices. The effect is a rapid expansion of the on-hand BTC, while the mNAV premium stabilizes or even recovers temporarily; the cost is an increase in the average holding price, making it more sensitive to retracements, compounded by the "rigid cost" of preferred stock dividends, amplifying the downside elasticity.
Medium Rhythm (β Neutral): If the Bitcoin price is primarily fluctuating in the short term, the company is more likely to buy in batches, pushing the holdings to the range of 27,000 to 30,000 coins by the end of the year. This approach reduces the risk of buying at high levels, but dilution and priority discounts may offset valuation elasticity, causing the stock price to largely operate close to mNAV, and the premium is likely to struggle to expand significantly.
Slow Pace (β Weakening): If capital continues to net outflow, the price of Bitcoin will struggle to maintain high levels, and the company's mNAV premium will continue to converge or even reverse; the dilution expectations from preferred stock/issuance and the rise in financing costs, combined with the collapse of market sentiment, will amplify the downward momentum of stock prices, leading to a downward shift in the valuation center, or there may be passive deleveraging pressure.
Conclusion
In short, while the treasury model has brought short-term growth momentum, its vulnerabilities have gradually emerged against the backdrop of market fluctuations and macroeconomic changes. After choosing to go all-in on Bitcoin, Metaplanet's future is no longer in its own hands, but rather has entrusted its fate to the crypto market. As the crypto market increasingly diversifies its compliant purchasing methods, from value traps to becoming market consensus, Metaplanet, as a path follower, may find itself in an even more difficult situation.