2 billion USD sell-off causes BTC to crash, why doesn't the 83 billion USD buy-in push the price up high?

In the spirit of "there are no stupid questions", influencer Crypto Tea raised a question that many people in the Bitcoin community think about but few say out loud: If a sell-off of 2 billion USD BTC can cause the price to plummet, why hasn’t more than 80 billion USD bought over the year from Michael Saylor and ETF funds pushed the price of Bitcoin soaring?

The analyst The Bitcoin Therapist also raised the question:

"How do you explain this?"

Sudden trading vs. algorithmic buying

Plan C, the creator of the Bitcoin Quantile Model, quickly explained. A sudden sell order of 2 billion USD could wipe out the order book and pull the price down as fast as a piano falling from the 10th floor.

Meanwhile, 83 billion USD accumulated in 2025 from Saylor and the ETF only causes the price to rise slowly, without creating a "moonshot". The reason, according to Plan C, is quite simple:

"To compare the impact, it is necessary to divide the total transaction value by the duration it occurs."

In other words: The price fluctuates at the "edge" of trading, rather than at the average.

• Sudden sell-off → causes a strong crash, especially when liquidity is low.
• Buy spread using algorithms → create a solid price foundation, but not enough force to create a breakthrough.

"Paper Bitcoin": Hidden Factors

Another question arises: "What about Paper Bitcoin?" — referring to the amount of "paper" BTC (IOU or derivative contracts ) traded on the exchange, creating the illusion of a supply that is greater than reality.

Plan C acknowledges:

"That is definitely a hard variable to predict. I don't know exactly the extent of the existence of Paper Bitcoin. If there is a lot, it certainly dilutes the impact of real money."

In other words, if the trading volume is largely "paper Bitcoin" instead of withdrawing real BTC from the market, then the buying pressure will be dispersed, causing the price not to react strongly.

The real factors that determine the price of BTC

Ultimately, the difference lies in the speed, execution method, and market structure:

• ETF and organizations buy in a scattered manner, across many exchanges and OTC desks, even designed to minimize price impact.
• Sell-offs often occur unexpectedly, are concentrated, and can easily create a panic mentality — especially on weekends when liquidity is low.

Therefore, when seeing the headline "BTC crashes due to a 2 billion USD dump", it is important to remember: it is not just about how much money, but about the speed and manner of the transaction. Buying slowly creates a foundation, selling shockingly creates fire. And somewhere, "Paper Bitcoin" remains an unknown that can reverse the situation.

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