Aptos (APT) is about to unlock 50 million USD tokens: Is there a risk of sell-off?

The price of Aptos (APT) is currently stabilizing around 4.43 USD as of Tuesday, following a slight bounce back last week. However, a major challenge awaits investors as 11.31 million tokens – equivalent to 2.20% of the circulating supply – will be unlocked on Thursday. The sudden increase in supply from unlocks often creates strong selling pressure, making market sentiment cautious and vigilant.

Unlock tokens worth 2.20% of circulating supply

According to data from Tokenomist, Aptos is set to face an important cliff unlock on Thursday, when 11.31 million APT – worth approximately 50.22 million USD, equivalent to 2.20% of the circulating supply – will be released right after the lock-up period ends.

Source: TokenomistIn the cryptocurrency market, unlocking more than 1% of the token supply often creates sell pressure, driving the price down. Therefore, APT is entering a sensitive phase where traders need to pay special attention to fluctuations this week.

Not only that, another concerning signal comes from the sharp decline in the total value locked (TVL) in the Aptos ecosystem. According to DeFiLlama, the TVL is currently only 741.36 million USD, down by 42.53% from the peak of 1.29 billion USD in May. This move may stem from capital withdrawals or staking cancellations, reflecting a weakening confidence and demand for the protocol.

TVL chart of Aptos | Source: DefiLlama## Technical analysis of Aptos

On the 4-hour frame, APT has maintained a sideways state within the range of 4.13 – 4.47 USD since August 25. However, on Monday, the price broke above the downward trend line formed since August 14, opening up a positive signal. As of Tuesday afternoon, APT was trading around 4.43 USD, close to the resistance of the range.

If it surpasses the threshold of 4.47 USD and maintains this support zone, APT could extend its upward momentum to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 4.63 USD from the peak of 5.14 USD on August 14 down to the bottom of 4.11 USD on 2/9(. The RSI index on the 4-hour frame is currently at 64, above the neutral threshold but not yet reaching the overbought zone, reflecting that the bullish momentum still has room.

![])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-a263f3092a8458eea7a368cc13ab7ead.webp(APT/USDT chart 4-hour | Source: TradingViewOn the daily frame, APT bounced back after hitting the lower trend line of the triangle pattern on Sunday, recording a bounce back of 4.85% in the Monday session. By Tuesday, the price is fluctuating just below the 50-day EMA line at 4.51 USD. If APT closes above this average line, the upward momentum could extend towards 4.81 USD – the peak of August 22, which also coincides with the upper trend line of the triangle pattern.

The daily RSI is crossing above the 50 level, indicating an early signal of an uptrend. At the same time, the MACD has shown a bullish crossover on Monday, signaling a buy and reinforcing a positive outlook.

![])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-74a6238692f7ef5ff75ee38258a20857.webp(Daily APT/USDT Chart | Source: TradingViewConversely, if APT fails to hold above the 50-day EMA at 4.51 USD, it is highly likely that the price will retest the bottom from September 1 at 4.10 USD.

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