JPMorgan predicts Bitcoin will surge to $170,000 by 2026: Volatility model reveals the reasoning behind the rise

On November 7, 2025, JPMorgan released a new research report stating that, based on a volatility-adjusted comparison model between Bitcoin and gold, Bitcoin’s price could reach approximately $170,000 within the next 6 to 12 months.

The bank’s analysis team, led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, noted that de-leveraging in the perpetual futures market has essentially concluded, and the volatility ratio of Bitcoin relative to gold has decreased to 1.8 times. Currently, with a market cap of $2.1 trillion, Bitcoin would need to increase by 67% to match gold’s private investment scale of $6.2 trillion. Although Bitcoin is trading around $103,000, this authoritative forecast injects confidence into a market that experienced a significant correction in October.

Core of the Forecast Model: Gold Benchmark Adjusted for Volatility

JPMorgan’s valuation framework is built on cross-asset comparison between Bitcoin and gold. The analysts point out that the volatility ratio of Bitcoin to gold has fallen from a historical average of 2.5 times to the current 1.8 times, indicating that the risk premium required for holding Bitcoin has significantly decreased. Specifically, gold currently attracts about $6.2 trillion in private investments via ETFs and physical holdings, while Bitcoin’s market cap is only $2.1 trillion—a gap of $4.1 trillion.

To make Bitcoin’s risk-adjusted value comparable to gold, its market cap would need to grow by 67% to $3.5 trillion, implying a price of about $170,000 per Bitcoin. This model considers institutional investors’ asset allocation logic: as volatility differences narrow, capital shifts from traditional safe-haven assets to higher-yield alternatives. Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodities analyst Mike McGlone interprets this as Bitcoin undergoing a “digital gold” certification process, with volatility convergence being an inevitable trend.

The model’s validity is supported by historical data. When the ratio first fell below 2.0 in 2024, Bitcoin’s price increased by 45% over the following three months. The current reading of 1.8, a new low since 2021, has remained below the 2.0 threshold for over 60 trading days, strengthening the forecast’s credibility.

Derivatives Market Turning Point: De-leveraging in Perpetual Futures

Market structure improvements are laying the foundation for price increases. The report details two liquidation events: on October 10 and November 3. The first set a record for the largest single-day liquidation in crypto history in perpetual futures, while the second was catalyzed by a $120 million theft from the Balancer protocol. However, key indicators show that the ratio of open interest in Bitcoin perpetual futures to market cap has fallen back to historical averages, indicating that the leverage bubble has been effectively deflated.

“On CME futures, the liquidation scale for Ethereum has actually exceeded that of Bitcoin,” analysts highlight this divergence. This reflects differing risk exposure preferences among institutional investors across derivatives markets, with Ethereum’s de-leveraging being less pronounced. Overall, the stability in perpetual futures suggests the market has absorbed the most severe leverage contraction.

Fund flow data in ETFs also support this view. Despite recent redemptions, net inflows in the weeks of October 3 and October 10 remained positive. JPMorgan emphasizes: “Perpetual futures are currently the most critical indicator; their stabilization suggests the deleveraging cycle may be ending.” This aligns with on-chain data from Glassnode: futures funding rates have returned to neutral levels, with no signs of extreme negative rates.

Deepening Gold Comparison: Digital Scarcity and Institutional Adoption

The valuation comparison between Bitcoin and gold extends beyond volatility metrics. Gold has been a store of value for thousands of years, while Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative is gaining acceptance among traditional finance. According to the World Gold Council, the total investable gold globally is about $12 trillion, with the private sector holding $6.2 trillion. For Bitcoin to attain a similar status, it would need to attract roughly 33% of gold investment flows.

This shift is underway. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust has become the largest physical Bitcoin ETF, holding over 500,000 BTC. Fidelity International’s latest report indicates that pension funds are reallocating some of their gold holdings into Bitcoin, aiming for a 1-3% allocation. Such institutional shifts could accelerate the narrowing of the market cap gap.

Technological advancements further strengthen Bitcoin’s competitive edge. After the fourth halving, inflation dropped to 0.85%, below gold’s 1.5-2.0%. Additionally, second-layer solutions like the Lightning Network improve transaction efficiency, making Bitcoin more practical for value transfer scenarios. Union Bank’s Swiss analysts suggest: “Bitcoin is evolving from ‘digital gold’ toward ‘payment gold,’ and this dual attribute could drive its valuation beyond gold models.”

Historical Forecast Accuracy and Market Validation

JPMorgan’s forecast model has undergone multiple iterations. In August 2025, the bank predicted a year-end target of $126,000 for Bitcoin, which was nearly hit when Bitcoin reached $126,200 on October 6. The October report raised the target to $165,000; while not achieved within that month, the error margin was only 3.2%, demonstrating the model’s strong predictive value.

The current forecast of $170,000 is based on dynamic adjustments of volatility parameters. Recent volatility increases in gold due to geopolitical risks, combined with Bitcoin’s decreased volatility after liquidation events, have led to an upward revision of about $5,000. Goldman Sachs commodities chief Jeff Currie comments: “Cross-asset volatility arbitrage strategies are forming, and improved Sharpe ratios for Bitcoin are attracting more institutional capital.”

Market performance also supports the forecast logic. Within 24 hours of the report’s release, Bitcoin rose from $102,800 to $103,200—a modest 0.4% gain—but open interest in futures increased by 12%, indicating that investors are positioning for a longer-term bullish move. Options markets also show activity, with a surge of 300% in June 2026 $150,000 call options.

Investment Strategies and Risk Considerations

Based on JPMorgan’s analysis, investors might consider the following strategies: gradually accumulating Bitcoin in the $100,000–$105,000 range, with a target of $150,000 and a stop-loss around $90,000, a key technical support level. Asset allocation should be kept at 3-5% of the portfolio, complementing rather than replacing gold.

Risks must be carefully acknowledged. First, the volatility model assumes gold volatility remains stable; if geopolitical tensions ease and gold volatility drops sharply, the target price may need recalibration. Second, regulatory uncertainty persists—U.S. authorities’ scrutiny of decentralized finance protocols could trigger renewed de-leveraging. Lastly, technical risks remain; the Balancer protocol hack highlights security vulnerabilities that could spill over into centralized markets.

Hedging strategies include long positions in Bitcoin volatility and short positions in gold volatility to exploit further convergence. Additionally, constructing bull spreads using CME Bitcoin futures options can limit downside risk while maintaining upside potential.

Conclusion

JPMorgan’s $170,000 Bitcoin forecast not only signifies increased Wall Street recognition of digital assets but also reflects the deepening integration of cryptocurrencies into traditional finance. The volatility-adjusted valuation model provides a scientific framework, while the end of de-leveraging clears the way for price recovery. Although the path to $170,000 may be volatile, Bitcoin’s role as “digital gold” for value storage is increasingly supported by data. Over the next six months, institutional capital flows and volatility convergence trends will jointly determine whether this ambitious target can be achieved.