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Bitcoin breaks through key resistance level, Fed policy and new regulations in Hong Kong become the focus.
Crypto Market Focus: Bitcoin and Ethereum Key Breakthrough Levels
Market Observation
Recently, the market's focus has concentrated on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. Although inflation data has shown some cooling, several Federal Reserve officials indicated that more time is needed to observe and confirm that price increases do not evolve into persistent inflation, thus maintaining a cautious stance on a rate cut in July. The majority view suggests that the current monetary policy is in a good position, leaning towards considering a rate cut later this fall or even later. This attitude stems from a reliance on future data and a prudent assessment of external factors, while there are signs of a slowdown in the labor market, it has not yet shown significant weakness, providing the Federal Reserve with support to wait patiently.
On Thursday, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively rose, led by technology and bank stocks, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes nearing historical highs. At the same time, U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, and the dollar index declined for the fourth consecutive day, reaching its lowest level in three years. Market expectations for at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year have strengthened.
In terms of regulation, the Hong Kong government has released a new declaration on the development of digital assets, marking a new phase for digital assets in Hong Kong. The policy clearly states that a licensing system for stablecoins will be implemented by 2025, promoting the tokenization of real-world assets, and providing tax incentives for tokenized ETFs and funds to attract international capital. Through regulatory frameworks, asset transparency, and tax competitiveness, Hong Kong is becoming a new hub for the global digital economy.
The price of Bitcoin has recently rebounded nearly 10% from $98,188, but the upward momentum has slowed. Today marks the largest scale expiration of Bitcoin and Ethereum options this year, which may exacerbate short-term volatility. Analysis shows that the price of Bitcoin is currently mainly driven by macro news, receiving strong support in the range of $93,000 to $100,000. However, both on-chain transfer volume and spot trading volume are on a downward trend, and the cautious sentiment in the futures market is rising, indicating that the market lacks the momentum to break new highs before a demand recovery.
Multiple analysts have stated that Bitcoin needs to break through the resistance range of $108,000 to $110,000 and turn it into support in order to enter a new price discovery phase and achieve higher targets. Currently, the MVRV ratio is 2.22, below the historically overvalued range, indicating there is still room for an increase. If the MVRV momentum strengthens, coupled with support from ETF fund inflows, the price of Bitcoin could break through the current high of $112,000 and even reach above $165,000.
For Ethereum, analysis indicates that $2200 is the macro bottom, and the price needs to effectively return above $2500 to initiate a stronger rebound. Furthermore, on-chain activity has cooled, with the recent directive from the Federal Housing Finance Agency in the United States accepting cryptocurrencies as collateral for mortgage assets, driving an "home buying narrative" on-chain.
Key Data
ETF Flow ( as of June 26 )
Today's Outlook
Top 500 largest increases in market value today: Dohrnii (DHN) increased by 160.89%, Levana Protocol (LVN) increased by 70.88%, AI Companions (AIC) increased by 32.35%, Euler (EUL) increased by 20.79%, Dog (Bitcoin) (DOG) increased by 9.86%.
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