Capital Economics: The Fed's December vote may result in the first-ever 6:6 tie in history.

On November 24, analysts at the research firm Capital Economics stated that the usually consensus-driven Fed has recently shown increasingly serious divisions, to the extent that next month's interest rate-setting meeting “could end in a stalemate.” In a report last Friday, economists at Capital Economics attempted to calculate the voting situation. Four regional Fed presidents on the committee—Collins, Goolsbee, Musalem, and Schmidt—expressed skepticism about the proposal to cut rates next month, even “completely opposing” it. Fed governors Barr and Jefferson also issued cautious signals. Meanwhile, among the doves, three Fed governors appointed by Trump—Bowman, Mulan, and Waller—have been calling for rate cuts, and Williams' statements last Friday also sounded like he might join them. Capital Economics noted: “That said, the support for a rate cut remains at only four votes in favor and six votes against. However, given that Williams and Fed Chairman Powell often share the same viewpoint (and Governor Lisa Cook typically votes in line with Powell), a 6-6 tie could emerge.” Robert Eisenbeis, who formerly served as the research director at the Atlanta Fed, told Fortune earlier this year that once a tie occurs, the federal funds rate will remain unchanged.