QCP: Market focuses on this week's Fed meeting, Bitcoin experiences extreme volatility as year-end liquidity bottoms out

BlockBeats News, December 8, QCP released its daily market commentary stating that BTC experienced significant volatility on Sunday, fluctuating within the $88,000 to $92,000 range, while ETH quickly surged from $2,910 to $3,150. As year-end liquidity continues to decline, the market has become especially sensitive to small capital flows. However, despite the sharp swings, liquidation volumes remain low, indicating that market participation and positioning have continued to decrease this quarter. The open interest for the two major assets’ perpetual contracts has dropped 40–50% from the October peak, and retail sentiment has returned to bearish levels. Meanwhile, supply is tightening noticeably. In the past two weeks, about 25,000 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges, and for the first time, ETF and corporate holdings have surpassed exchange balances. ETH exchange reserves have also dropped to near ten-year lows, indicating that while retail investors are exiting, long-term capital is quietly accumulating. The market’s focus has shifted to Wednesday’s US Federal Reserve FOMC meeting. Although a 25bp rate cut is widely expected, balance sheet guidance will determine the year-end direction for risk assets. Currently, BTC continues to fluctuate within the $84,000 to $100,000 range, but as market depth deteriorates and year-end holidays approach, a breakout in either direction could trigger the next major trend.