Data 10 September. GS fixed-income research report pointed out that there might be an intensification of asset shortage in the fourth quarter. Due to high Suku Bunga rates, market-oriented non-government bond financing remains consistently sluggish. In the past three months, the year-on-year increase was about 600 billion yuan per month on average. In the short term, if the Suku Bunga rate remains relatively stable, it may continue at this level in the fourth quarter. In the third quarter, supported by the government bond issuance, the year-on-year total of government bond financing increased by 1.3 trillion yuan, with an average monthly increase of over 400 billion yuan. However, based on the current budget, the net financing amount in the fourth quarter will significantly decline. The net financing of government bonds in the fourth quarter of this year will total 1.6 trillion yuan, compared to 3.6 trillion yuan in the same period last year, with a monthly year-on-year increase of nearly 700 billion yuan. If non-government bond financing maintains a monthly year-on-year increase of 600 billion yuan, the overall year-on-year increase in social financing will expand from an average of 300 billion yuan per month in the past three months to about 1.3 trillion yuan. Even if a 1 trillion yuan deficit is added in the fourth quarter, it will be difficult to change the situation of significant year-on-year decrease. Therefore, there is a possibility of further intensification of the asset shortage.
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Guosheng Fixed Income: Kemungkinan Peningkatan Kelangkaan Aset di Kuartal IV
Data 10 September. GS fixed-income research report pointed out that there might be an intensification of asset shortage in the fourth quarter. Due to high Suku Bunga rates, market-oriented non-government bond financing remains consistently sluggish. In the past three months, the year-on-year increase was about 600 billion yuan per month on average. In the short term, if the Suku Bunga rate remains relatively stable, it may continue at this level in the fourth quarter. In the third quarter, supported by the government bond issuance, the year-on-year total of government bond financing increased by 1.3 trillion yuan, with an average monthly increase of over 400 billion yuan. However, based on the current budget, the net financing amount in the fourth quarter will significantly decline. The net financing of government bonds in the fourth quarter of this year will total 1.6 trillion yuan, compared to 3.6 trillion yuan in the same period last year, with a monthly year-on-year increase of nearly 700 billion yuan. If non-government bond financing maintains a monthly year-on-year increase of 600 billion yuan, the overall year-on-year increase in social financing will expand from an average of 300 billion yuan per month in the past three months to about 1.3 trillion yuan. Even if a 1 trillion yuan deficit is added in the fourth quarter, it will be difficult to change the situation of significant year-on-year decrease. Therefore, there is a possibility of further intensification of the asset shortage.