On July 29, Jin10 reported that Urupelsi, Chief U.S. Economist at Plash, stated that the Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.5% this week, but Waller and Bowman may express opposition. This could intensify speculation that once more officials appointed by Trump join the Federal Reserve Board of Governors starting in the first quarter of 2026, the pace of interest rate cuts will accelerate. Dovish Waller and Bowman may argue that monetary policy is restrictive because inflation related to tariffs is being offset by other factors, and they may use a neutral interest rate close to 3% as a reason to cut rates. Powell is expected to try to guide the FOMC to wait as long as possible before the next rate cut, with a higher likelihood of a cut in October than in September.
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Institutions: The Fed is expected to remain unchanged this week, with the two doves likely to hold opposing views.
On July 29, Jin10 reported that Urupelsi, Chief U.S. Economist at Plash, stated that the Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.5% this week, but Waller and Bowman may express opposition. This could intensify speculation that once more officials appointed by Trump join the Federal Reserve Board of Governors starting in the first quarter of 2026, the pace of interest rate cuts will accelerate. Dovish Waller and Bowman may argue that monetary policy is restrictive because inflation related to tariffs is being offset by other factors, and they may use a neutral interest rate close to 3% as a reason to cut rates. Powell is expected to try to guide the FOMC to wait as long as possible before the next rate cut, with a higher likelihood of a cut in October than in September.