Why Aptos could face many disadvantages after the unlocking of tokens worth 51 million USD

Today, Aptos unlocked 11.31 million APT ( equivalent to about 51 million USD ), increasing the circulating supply.

The significant increase in supply, combined with the weakening of the overall market and the profit-taking mentality of traders, is putting greater selling pressure on APT, which could lead to further declines in price.

APT weakens as selling activity increases

Currently, APT is trading around $4.8. During the same time, according to data from Santiment, the trading volume has increased by 10%, indicating that the number of tokens traded has risen.

APT Price/Trading Volume | Source: SantimentWhen the price drops but trading volume increases, this often reflects strong selling pressure, meaning that many investors are offloading rather than buying. Therefore, this trend indicates that the APT market is experiencing a stronger downtrend with increasing dominance of the sellers.

The Long/Short ratio of APT also reinforces the bearish outlook. On the 1-hour chart, this ratio is at 0.69 – indicating that the number of short positions (short) is dominating the number of long positions (long), reflecting a negative sentiment as many traders bet that the price will continue to decline.

OI of the APT Futures Contract. Source: CoinglassThe Long/Short Index measures the Long/Short betting ratio in the futures market of an asset. A ratio above 1 indicates more Long positions than Short positions. This reflects an optimistic sentiment, as most traders expect the asset's value to rise.

Conversely, a Long/Short ratio below 1 means that many traders are betting that the asset's price will decrease.

Can APT maintain important support?

On the daily chart, APT is currently trading at the 20-day EMA line – a level that could determine the short-term price trend.

The 20-day EMA is an indicator that measures the average price of an asset over the last 20 periods. If the price is above the 20-day EMA, it signals strengthening momentum and potential upward trend, indicating that buyers are in control.

On the contrary, dropping below this level indicates weakening momentum and may shift to a bearish sentiment, with sellers gaining the upper hand.

If the price of APT drops sharply below the 20-day EMA, this will confirm that the bears have regained full control of the market. This move could trigger further selling pressure, pulling APT down below $4.52.

Technical analysis of APT | Source: TradingViewConversely, if it successfully maintains the 20-day EMA as a support level, it could lay the groundwork for a recovery. Buyers entering at this level could push the price of APT above $5.01.

Vincent