Rumors of Donald Trump’s Death Sparked $1.6 Million in Prediction Market Bets

Last weekend, the American internet was swept by a bizarre wave of speculation. The unusual absence of President Donald Trump from public appearances during the holiday was enough to ignite rumors of his death. Although these claims turned out to be completely false, they had an unexpected effect: prediction markets saw wagers worth more than $1.6 million.

How the rumors started Trump kept a very low public profile over the holiday weekend, which fueled a flood of viral posts suggesting he was on his deathbed. Social media quickly amplified both ironic and serious comments. The president later reappeared in good health, dismissing the viral speculation as “somewhat crazy.” But in the digital age, even baseless rumors can morph into market phenomena. In this case, they triggered a surge in betting over whether Trump would remain in office through 2025.

Gambling business on the edge of ethics Prediction platforms saw more than $1.6 million wagered in just one weekend. One platform alone processed over $700,000 in trading volume on Saturday. Roughly half of participants directly bet on Trump’s potential death, expecting payouts if such an event occurred. Many users likely overlooked that the terms varied across platforms – on one, winnings would only be paid out if Trump resigned or left office for non-fatal reasons. Yet the willingness to bet remained high, despite implied probabilities of Trump’s death or departure being only around 13%.

Controversial role of Donald Trump Jr. The situation becomes even more sensitive given that Donald Trump Jr. serves as an advisor to both firms that offered these prediction markets. This raises serious ethical concerns, since he is the son of the sitting president whose life and political future were at the center of the wagers. Analysts warn this sets a precedent that could open the door to even more ethically questionable markets in the future.

A precedent that both fascinates and disturbs Trump’s weekend death rumors ultimately fizzled out quickly. The president reappeared publicly, putting the speculation to rest. Yet the question remains: are we entering a new era where fabricated claims about political leaders’ lives can instantly be transformed into multi-million-dollar markets? On one hand, it was a short-lived meme that collapsed as fast as it spread. On the other, it highlights how prediction markets—if left unregulated—could bring far more troubling scenarios in the future.

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