Alts quarterly index plummets after breaking 100! Experts: The fourth quarter may welcome a "Bitcoin solo dance" market.

The altcoin quarterly index briefly broke above 100 points on September 19 before rapidly falling back to 69 points, with market funds clearly flowing back from alts to Bitcoin, and the fear and greed index returning to the "fear" zone. This series of signs suggests that there may be a "Bitcoin solo dance" market in the fourth quarter of 2025, prompting investors to reassess their allocation strategies. This article delves into the market logic behind the fluctuations of the altcoin quarterly index and the key insights for the upcoming fourth quarter investment layout.

####Market Pullback 97% Increase: Alts Suffer Heavy Losses

(Source: Trading View)

As the third quarter of 2025 comes to a close, the cryptocurrency market has returned to levels seen in early September, nearly giving back 97% of the gains made throughout the month. Bitcoin (BTC) is currently up only 3% from its quarterly opening price of $108,000, while the overall market capitalization (TOTAL) remains around 3% of the base of $3.70 trillion.

However, the alts market has been clearly hit harder. The total market cap excluding Bitcoin (TOTAL2) dropped by 4.43% after being blocked at a key resistance level, which is twice the decline of Bitcoin. This obvious differentiation indicates a significant change in investors' risk appetite.

"We are witnessing a typical 'risk transfer' model," explained cryptocurrency market analyst Sarah Chen. "When market uncertainty rises, funds typically flow from high-risk alts to the relatively safe Bitcoin, which is an early signal of a shift in market sentiment."

####Ethereum's Dominance Declines: Alts Lose Key Support

What is even more noteworthy is the stark contrast with the situation at the end of the second quarter and the beginning of the third quarter. At that time, Ethereum's market dominance (ETH.D) nearly doubled, reaching 15%, and TOTAL2 grew by 30%, injecting $510 billion into the alts market.

However, ETH.D is currently developing in the opposite direction, having been in a steady decline since reaching a peak of 15% in mid-August. This indicates that the altcoin market has lost this key supporting force from Ethereum, resulting in capital still being locked elsewhere.

"The decline of Ethereum's dominance is an important market signal," said blockchain researcher Michael Wong. "Ethereum is often seen as the 'leader' of the altcoin market, and when its relative performance starts to decline, it usually indicates that the entire altcoin market may face greater adjustment pressure."

####Altcoin Quarterly Index: A Rapid Drop from 100 to 69

(Source: Blockchain Center)

Despite Ethereum's lackluster dominance, the Altcoin Season Index surged past 100 points on September 19, reaching a seven-year high. This breakthrough is mainly attributed to the influx of funds triggered by the launch of Aster (ASTER), but this wave of growth is merely a flash in the pan.

As of the time of publication, the index has fallen back to 69 points, only 10% higher than the opening price in September. According to the definition by the Blockchain Center, when the index is below 75, the market is no longer in "altcoin season," indicating that recent capital flows are mainly of a speculative nature rather than based on solid fundamentals.

"The altcoin quarterly index has plummeted from 100 to 69, and this rapid decline usually signifies a significant shift in market sentiment," explained technical analyst Robert Lee. "When the index falls below the critical threshold of 75, it sends a clear signal to the market: the altcoin season is over, and funds are looking for safer havens."

####Bitcoin Dominance Rebounds: Capital Flows into Safe Assets

Another key indicator supporting this trend judgment is Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D). This week, BTC.D rose by 1.01%, making it the only indicator that remains above the September lows, while ETH.D fell by 2.86%. This comparison clearly indicates that funds are flowing back from alts to Bitcoin.

"The resurgence of Bitcoin's dominance is a typical manifestation of the market's shift in risk appetite," said cryptocurrency asset allocation expert Jennifer Zhang. "In an environment of increasing uncertainty, investors tend to reduce their exposure to high-risk assets and increase their allocation to relatively safe assets like Bitcoin."

####Q4 2025 Market Outlook: Is Bitcoin Dancing Alone?

Comprehensive analysis of TOTAL2 cap, weakening ETH/BTC transmission, and increased speculation on small alts suggests that the altcoin market may be preparing for a deeper adjustment. This makes the divergence between alts and Bitcoin an important divergence to closely monitor in the investment positioning for the fourth quarter.

"History shows that when the altcoin quarterly index rapidly drops from a high point, a market pattern of 'Bitcoin dancing alone' usually emerges," market strategist David Wang explained. "In this situation, Bitcoin may perform independently of the overall market, and even remain stable or rise while altcoins are falling."

####Fourth Quarter Investment Strategy Recommendations

Based on the current market signals, investors may need to adjust their investment strategy for the fourth quarter:

Increase Bitcoin allocation: Consider increasing the weight of Bitcoin in your investment portfolio to respond to the potential "Bitcoin solo dance" market.

Be cautious when choosing alts: If you insist on holding alts, prioritize projects with solid fundamentals and practical use cases.

Pay attention to liquidity indicators: When choosing alts, liquidity becomes a key consideration factor. Small alts with low liquidity may face greater risks during market adjustments.

Set stop-loss strategy: Set reasonable stop-loss levels for altcoin positions to control downside risk.

Pay attention to macroeconomic factors: The global economic environment in the fourth quarter, inflation data, and central bank policies will have a significant impact on the crypto market.

"In an environment where risk tolerance is changing, investors need to manage risk more cautiously," risk management expert Mark Johnson advised, "This does not mean completely abandoning alts, but rather being more selective and ensuring that appropriate risk control measures are in place."

####Technical Indicator Analysis: Key Support and Resistance Levels

From a technical analysis perspective, the alts market faces several key levels:

TOTAL2 key support: The 1.5 trillion dollar level is an important support level for the total market cap of alts, and falling below this level could trigger a deeper adjustment.

ETH/BTC ratio: 0.055 is a key support level, and if it breaks below, it may further weaken confidence in the alts market.

Alts Quarterly Index: 50 points is another important psychological barrier; falling below this level may signal the start of an altcoin bear market.

BTC.D Resistance Level: The 60% level of Bitcoin dominance is an important resistance, and breaking this level may further suppress alts performance.

"From a technical perspective, the altcoin market is at a critical crossroads," technical analyst Lisa Chen pointed out. "In the short term, investors should closely monitor the performance of these key levels, as they will provide important clues for the market direction in the fourth quarter."

####Conclusion: Market differentiation intensifies, and risk management is crucial

The altcoin quarterly index fell sharply from 100 points to 69 points, coupled with the decline in Ethereum's dominance and the rebound of Bitcoin's dominance, collectively indicating a potential significant market differentiation in the fourth quarter of 2025. Investors need to recognize that this differentiation is not just a short-term fluctuation, but may represent a longer-term shift in market trends.

In such an environment, risk management becomes particularly important. Investors should reassess their portfolio allocation based on their risk tolerance and investment objectives, and be prepared to cope with potential market fluctuations.

"The fourth quarter could be a critical turning point for the crypto market," summarized senior market observer Robert Chen, "whether it’s a 'Bitcoin solo performance' or an overall market adjustment, maintaining a clear mind and flexible strategies will be key to success."

As we enter the final quarter of 2025, market uncertainty may further increase. However, for well-prepared investors, this uncertainty may also present new opportunities.