Bitcoin falls below the psychological barrier of $100,000, and the government's favorable information is hard to counter the cooling expectation of interest rate cuts.

On November 13, 2025, the price of Bitcoin plummeted from an intraday high of $104,000 to below $99,300, once again losing the key psychological level of $100,000, with total market capitalization falling below $2 trillion. Despite U.S. President Trump signing a bill to end a 43-day government shutdown on November 12, the market experienced a “fully priced-in good news” scenario, with the probability of a Fed rate cut in December dropping sharply from 72% to 50%, triggering a widespread dumping of risk assets. Bitcoin Spot ETF saw net outflows on 8 out of the last 11 trading days, with a single-day liquidation scale reaching $532 million, indicating that institutional investors are accelerating their exit from the crypto market.

Classic Divergence Between Government Opening and Market Reaction

The favourable information from the US government's end of the longest shutdown in history did not boost market sentiment as expected; instead, it triggered a typical “sell the news” market reaction. Bitcoin briefly surged to $106,000 after the Senate passed the funding bill, but quickly retreated after the bill was officially signed, indicating that the earlier gains had fully priced in this catalyst. This divergence phenomenon is not the first time in the crypto market; similar “buy the rumor, sell the news” price behavior was observed when the Bitcoin futures ETF was approved in 2024, reflecting the ongoing improvement in market efficiency.

The underlying reason lies in the structural issues accumulated during the government shutdown. Kevin Hassett, the director of the National Economic Council, estimates that the shutdown resulted in 60,000 private sector employees losing their jobs, while the delayed release of economic data makes it difficult for investors to assess the true state of the economy. Morgan Stanley analyst Lisa Shalett pointed out, “The 43-day data vacuum has amplified market uncertainty, and investors are more inclined to lock in profits after the favourable information is realized, rather than chase higher prices to enter the market.” This cautious sentiment is particularly evident in the derivatives market, where Bitcoin open interest has decreased by 12%, indicating that leveraged funds are actively reducing their risk exposure.

The Risk Impact of a Sudden Drop in the Probability of Fed Rate Cuts

The CME FedWatch Tool shows that the probability of a rate cut in December fell sharply from 62.9% to 50.7% between November 12 and 13, becoming the last straw for risk assets. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem stated that inflation remains persistently above the 2% target, requiring the central bank to act cautiously, while Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari bluntly stated that he does not support a recent rate cut decision. This hawkish shift stands in stark contrast to the market's optimistic expectations following the rate cuts in September and October.

The reconstruction of interest rate expectations exerts dual pressure on the valuation of cryptocurrencies. On one hand, higher risk-free returns increase the opportunity cost of zero-yield assets like Bitcoin, prompting funds to flow back to traditional fixed-income markets; on the other hand, a cooling of interest rate cut expectations suggests that economic resilience may exceed expectations, undermining Bitcoin's inflation-hedging narrative. The 10x Research report points out: “When the Fed's easing cycle pauses, cryptocurrencies usually underperform traditional risk assets, as the latter at least can provide cash flow support.” Historical data shows that during the interruption of Fed rate cuts in 2019, Bitcoin's excess returns relative to the S&P 500 index were negative 15%.

Bitcoin market key data monitoring

• Current price: $99,300 (daily low)
• Key psychological level: $100,000 (has fallen below)
• December interest rate cut probability: 50.7% (monthly high 72%)
• ETF net outflow: August 11 (last 11 trading days)
• Daily settlement: $532 million (long positions account for 77%)
• Market capitalization share: 41.2% (dominance weakened)

Warning Signals of Bitcoin ETF Fund Flow Reversal

The capital flow of the Bitcoin Spot ETF has undergone a fundamental shift, with net outflows occurring on 8 out of the last 11 trading days, totaling over $2.5 billion. On November 4 and 7, the single-day outflows reached $577 million and $558 million, respectively, marking the worst performance since the product was launched in January 2024. While BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC have maintained net inflows, the pace has significantly slowed, and Grayscale's GBTC continues to serve as the main channel for capital outflows, indicating that early investors are taking any rebound opportunity to exit.

Changes in institutional behavior reflect adjustments in allocation logic. Analysis by JPMorgan shows that the 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 index has risen to 0.65, making it difficult for cryptocurrencies to remain insulated when tech stocks face dumping. Furthermore, corporate treasury allocation interest has noticeably cooled, with MicroStrategy not announcing any new Bitcoin purchases since September, and Tesla revealing a 15% reduction in its Bitcoin holdings in its Q3 financial report. This decline in institutional enthusiasm stands in stark contrast to the first half of 2025, when publicly listed companies announced an average of five Bitcoin allocation plans each month.

Technical Analysis and Key Price Level Contest

From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin has formed a clear short-term bearish structure. On the daily chart, the price has consecutively fallen below the 100-day moving average ($102,000) and the 50-day moving average ($105,000), and both are about to form a death cross. Momentum indicators are broadly weakening, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropping to 38, approaching the oversold area but not yet showing a rebound signal. The MACD histogram continues to expand below the zero line, confirming the strengthening of the downward momentum.

In terms of key support levels, $93,000 has become the focus of contention between bulls and bears, corresponding to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the upward trend for 2025. If it fails to hold, the next support levels to watch are $88,000 (100-week moving average) and $82,000 (200-day moving average). Resistance levels are densely distributed in the range of $102,000 to $108,000, especially $105,000, which is crucial as it has turned from previous support to resistance. A 15% decline in futures open interest indicates that bulls are closing positions rather than bears actively building positions, which reduces the probability of a short-term rebound.

The Altcoin Market is Affected and Capital Rotation Occurs

Bitcoin's fall below a key level triggers larger declines in altcoins. Among the top 50 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, 90% underperformed Bitcoin, with Solana falling 6.8% in a single day, Avalanche plunging 9.2%, and the Meme coin sector averaging a drop of 12.5%. This pattern reflects a sharp contraction in risk appetite, as investors rotate from high-beta assets to relatively stable Bitcoin, which, despite also declining, shows defensive characteristics.

The stablecoin supply ratio (SSR) has dropped to 0.68, indicating that stablecoin holders are unwilling to convert to risk assets at the current price level, a sentiment that typically signals further downward pressure. Notably, the trading volume on decentralized exchanges (DEX) has increased by 20% against the trend, showing that some investors are transferring assets on-chain to avoid custody risks, but this activity is mostly conducted in stablecoin form rather than purchasing altcoins. According to CoinShares, digital asset investment products have seen net outflows for four consecutive weeks, totaling $1.8 billion, while short Bitcoin products have seen inflows of $170 million during the same period.

Important Stress Test for the Maturity of the Crypto Market

Bitcoin fell below $100,000 under the favourable information of the government's reopening, vividly demonstrating the complex pricing logic of mature markets. When fully priced-in good news coincides with macro headwinds, cryptocurrency experienced a deep adjustment for the first time without any obvious black swan events. This “normalization” of the bear market may be a sign of the industry's maturity. From a historical perspective, every major correction has been a catalyst for the evolution of market infrastructure— the 2018 bear market gave rise to institutional-level custody solutions, while the 2022 crash propelled stricter regulatory frameworks. This adjustment may be accumulating energy for the next round of innovation. Once excessive leverage is cleared and speculators exit, long-term investors who truly believe in blockchain transformation will benefit from a healthier investment environment. On the long journey of cryptocurrency moving from the fringes to the mainstream, such stress tests are not the end but a necessary stage of purification and rebirth.