Ethereum: How STH can shape ETH price prospects in Q4

Overall, Ethereum (ETH) is facing more difficulties than Bitcoin (BTC) this month. With a fall of 17.8% in November, ETH recorded a negative ROI of 23% for Q4 — nearly 1.5 times that of Bitcoin — repeating a similar divergence as occurred in Q1.

When looking more broadly, ETH holders are suffering significant losses, with 40% of the supply currently in the red. However, a closer look reveals a different picture. On November 14th, BTC fell to the price level of early May, down 5.6%. Meanwhile, Ethereum is still nearly 73% higher than the base price of $1,793 from May. This means that while BTC HODLers are showing signs of weakness, short-term ETH holders (STH) are still maintaining significant profits.

ETH/USDT Monthly Chart | Source: TradingViewIn the context of a “risk-off” market, this divergence has become an important turning point. Compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum is showing stronger momentum to HODL, implying lower capitulation risk. In fact, if ETH rises by just 0.25% from the current price of 3,160 USD, a significant group will return to a profitable state.

To visualize more clearly, 4.09% of the ETH supply has an execution price of 3,168 USD. Returning to this level will help approximately 3 million ETH return to a profitable state. In other words, the confidence of STH in Ethereum may become the main driving force behind the current cycle.

Ethereum remains strong as the risk of Bitcoin surrender looms.

After falling 5.2% to a level of 94,000 USD, the Net Realized Profit/Loss ( of BTC has turned red, recording a net loss of up to 1.3 billion USD – the highest loss in terms of realized value since April. Meanwhile, Ethereum only suffered a relatively light loss of around 325 million USD.

This shows that the selling pressure on Bitcoin is much higher, while Ethereum is proving to be more resilient. The STH ) holders of ETH who have held for over 155 days ( still maintain profits, giving Ethereum an advantage based on investor confidence. In other words, the surrender risk of Bitcoin is becoming a great opportunity for ETH.

![])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-031856307be9e47eb80ed1f40b70e57c.webp(Source: GlassnodeNot only limited to numbers, market movements are also very noteworthy. Tom Lee is actively “buying when the price falls”. Recently, Arkham Intelligence discovered a wallet transferring 29.7 million USD ETH, coinciding with previous purchase orders from Bitmine.

In summary, the strength of Ethereum in Q4 shows no signs of weakening. With ETH STHs in a relatively high profit zone, along with smart money continuing to buy on dips, Ethereum is emerging as a safe haven based on trust, amidst the context of Bitcoin showing signs of weakness.

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