On-Chain Analyst Flags Escalating Panic as Bitcoin’s Realized Losses Hit $860M in Single Day

On-chain analyst Murphy highlighted that the second wave of panic selling on November 17 generated $860 million in Entity-Adjusted Realized Losses (EARL), surpassing the previous day’s $820 million figure. This marks the highest single-day realized loss since the March 2020 COVID crash and signals that market fear continues to spread without signs of convergence.

EARL Explainer: Measuring Real Panic Selling

Entity-Adjusted Realized Loss (EARL) tracks actual losses taken when coins move at prices below their acquisition cost, filtering out intra-entity transfers. The metric is widely regarded as one of the most reliable indicators of capitulation because it reflects genuine selling pressure from distinct market participants rather than simple wallet shuffling.

• November 17 EARL: $860 million
• November 14 EARL: $820 million
• Combined two-day total: $1.68 billion

These figures place the current sell-off among the most intense capitulation episodes of the past five years, comparable only to the 2022 FTX collapse and the 2020 pandemic crash.

Four-Year Cycle Alignment Adds to Bearish Sentiment

The timing of the drawdown coincides closely with historical patterns in the Bitcoin four-year halving cycle. Many investors and institutions continue to reference this framework, which typically features:

• Post-halving euphoria (2024–early 2025)
• Mid-cycle correction (late 2025)
• Accumulation phase (2026)
• Next bull peak (2027–2028)

The current decline from the $126,000 October high mirrors the mid-cycle pullbacks seen in 2017 and 2021, reinforcing the view among cycle adherents that a deeper correction may still be ahead.

When Will Capitulation End?

Murphy emphasized that declining or stabilizing EARL values during price declines are the clearest signal that panic selling is exhausting. Only when realized losses begin to taper — even as price continues lower — can the market be considered close to a local bottom. Until that pattern emerges, the analyst warns, fear remains the dominant force and further downside remains possible.

Key Levels to Watch

• Sustained EARL above $600–800 million daily → panic still active
• EARL falling below $400 million while price holds or dips → potential capitulation signal
• Historical precedent: 2022 bottom formed after EARL peaked and then steadily declined over several weeks

Current Market Context

Bitcoin traded around $91,500 at the time of the analysis, down more than 27% from its all-time high. The broader crypto market has shed over $1 trillion in the past six weeks, with long liquidations exceeding $5 billion. Sentiment indicators remain in “extreme fear” territory, consistent with previous cycle lows.

In summary, the $860 million EARL recorded on November 17 confirms that panic selling intensified over the weekend, with no immediate signs of capitulation exhaustion. Until realized losses begin to decline, the market remains at risk of further downside before a sustainable recovery can take hold.