Macro Outlook for Next Week: Powell "Battles" Market Rate Cut Expectations, Fed Releases Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

On August 16, the U.S. economic data over the past week has been mixed, leading to ongoing fluctuations in market expectations for a Fed interest rate cut. Data released on Friday showed widespread growth in U.S. retail sales driven by auto sales and major online promotional events. However, a subsequent report indicated a surprising decline in consumer confidence, the first since April, along with rising inflation expectations. Previously, the July CPI and PPI reports seemed to send mixed signals about whether the economy could withstand the effects of Trump's comprehensive import tariffs, but both indicated persistent service inflation, with PPI reaching a three-year high month-on-month. Meanwhile, there are notable divisions within the Fed regarding a rate cut in September. On Wednesday at 23:00, Fed Governor Waller spoke at a Blockchain seminar in Wyoming; on Thursday at 2:00, the Fed released the minutes of its monetary policy meeting; at 3:00 on Thursday, 2027 FOMC voting member and Atlanta Fed President Bostic spoke on the economic outlook; at 20:30 on Thursday, the U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending August 16 and the U.S. August Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index; at 21:45 on Thursday, the U.S. August S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI preliminary reading; and on Friday at 22:00, Fed Chairman Powell spoke at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting.