Under the "hawkish" tone of the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged, why the crypto market "ignored" hawkish warnings to rise strongly, Bitcoin hit the 10W mark and Ether tested the 2000 mark. The multiple factors behind this are intertwined to reshape the market structure. At the expectation level, the market has fully digested the "short-term no interest rate cut", and CME interest rate futures show that the probability of a rate cut in July is 85%, and the expectation of two interest rate cuts this year is strong. Loose expectations under the "hawkish appearance" support risk assets to continue to rise. Trump's lifting of restrictions on AI technology instantly ignited the enthusiasm of tech stocks. Leading stocks such as Nvidia led the gains, driving up the valuation of the technology sector and attracting a large influx of funds. The hot market of technology stocks has led to a rebound in market risk appetite, and Bitcoin, which has the dual attributes of "digital gold" and "technology assets", has stood out and become the target of capital chasing. The resumption of US-China trade talks is also a key variable. Markets are focused on Trump's speech and look forward to progress on trade issues. Historically, the crypto market has benefited from rising liquidity expectations and sentiment recovery when the trade environment has improved, and the resumption of negotiations has provided support for asset price increases.

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Bitcoin's sudden surge, the current highest test of 99850 line, many friends inadvertently asked will it rise? Where will you go? Based on the analysis of the Fibonacci extension line and key resistance levels, there are two important upside targets for Bitcoin price in the short term. The first target is near $102,000, which is a strong resistance level formed in the early trading zone, and a break above it could lead to a further test of $104,500. From the perspective of the relationship between volume and price, the current market bulls dominate, and the open interest and trading volume are enlarged simultaneously, indicating that the upward momentum is abundant. In terms of risk control, the probability of a sharp correction in the market is low. Even if there is a correction in the short term, it will most likely occur when the price approaches the key resistance level of $102,000. Therefore, in the current market environment, the short-term long strategy is highly feasible. In terms of entry point selection, referring to the Bollinger Bands mid-band and moving average support, moderate investors can lay out dips near $98,400, and aggressive investors can pay attention to the $98,800 support level. The $98400 - $98800 range has formed an effective support band, which, combined with the MACD indicator's movement above the zero line, provides a margin of safety for bulls to enter the market. The market sentiment index (greed fear index) remained in the greed range, and the overall trend was relatively healthy. Unless there is a systemic financial risk, a major downside to regulatory policies (such as stronger global regulation of digital currencies), or a price effectively below the key support level of $97,000, which will trigger a large number of stop-loss orders and undermine the current uptrend, the rally is still expected to continue.
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Ethereum officially announced that the Pectra upgrade will be activated on the mainnet, which covers the iteration of the user experience function of the smart account wallet, the 100% increase in the storage block capacity of the L2 scaling solution, and the optimization of the validator operation interface and performance. In terms of price drivers, the recent Ethereum price increase has limited correlation with the Pectra upgrade. This round of upward market is mainly driven by the strong performance of the Bitcoin market and the linkage effect of the U.S. stock technology sector, while the main funds in the market have completed the reshaping of the long and short game pattern through an effective chip cleaning strategy. At the technical level, the price of Ethereum shows a typical oversold rebound after experiencing a phased bottom consolidation, like a compression spring releasing potential energy, and achieving the same frequency resonance with Bitcoin through market sentiment transmission. Based on the technical analysis framework, the short-term uptrend of Ethereum price is clear, and the target price is above $2,000. There are currently two key resistance levels: the secondary resistance level is near $1960, where there is a concentration of early hedging and short-term profit-taking, which may trigger a technical pullback; The main resistance range is $1990-2020, which contains significant Fibonacci retracement levels and historical trading intensives. The lower support system presents a stepped distribution, with the primary support range of $1900-1910, corresponding to the daily MA20 moving average and the middle Bollinger band; The secondary support range of $1860-1870 is the bottom of the recent shock box and the key psychological level, forming a strong price moat.
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