Original Title: "$100,000 is just the starting point? Miner Holdings hit a new cycle low + China-US tariff exemptions, Bitcoin enters frenzy mode"

Original author: Lawrence, Mars Finance

Part One: Bitcoin miners' selling pressure drops to the lowest since 2024 - Is the market gearing up for a new high?

1. Miner Behavior Shift: From Selling to Holding

According to the latest data from the cryptocurrency analysis platform Alphractal, the Bitcoin miner sell pressure indicator (which measures the ratio of miner outflows over the past 30 days to their reserves) has fallen below the lower bound, reaching its lowest level since 2024. This phenomenon suggests that miners are shifting from the previous "selling to cover operational costs" model to a strategic accumulation.

This stands in stark contrast to the dilemma of miners' income being halved after the 2024 halving (when the daily sell-off volume of miners increased from 900 coins to 1200 coins), but the changes in the current market environment have prompted miners to adjust their strategies:

· Profit expectations drive accumulation: As Bitcoin's price recently broke through $100,000 and approached historical highs, miners are more inclined to hold Bitcoin in anticipation of higher returns rather than cashing out in the short term.

· Structural Optimization of the Industry: The large-scale development of mining led by listed companies (such as Bitfarms, CleanSpark) has reduced the exit risk for inefficient miners, and the increased concentration in the industry has alleviated selling pressure.

· Historical Experience Reference: In past cycles, excessive leverage and long-term holdings by miners led to liquidity crises (such as the 2018 bear market), and there is now more emphasis on short-term financial stability.

​​2. Market Resilience Revealed by On-Chain Data​​

The miner selling pressure indicator from Alphractal shows that the current market structure is drastically different from the "panic selling" seen at the beginning of 2024:

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· Long-term holders dominate: Currently, over 80% of Bitcoin has been held for more than 6 months, significantly lower than the dominance of short-term holders at the historical cycle peak, providing stable support for the price.

· New Low in Exchange Reserves: The reserves of Bitcoin on trading platforms continue to decline, indicating that the market is in a "high-speed accumulation phase," with selling pressure dispersed by over-the-counter trading or institutional holdings.

· Derivatives Market Risk: Although the spot market is stable, there are a large number of highly leveraged long positions in the range of $100,000 to $110,000, and price fluctuations could trigger a wave of liquidations in the billions.

3. Price Trends and Future Expectations

As of May 12, 2025, the price of Bitcoin is reported at $104,250, with a 24-hour increase of 1% and a cumulative rise of over 30% in the past month. The focus of market divergence on the subsequent trend is:

​​· Technical Signals: The RSI (75) indicates overbought conditions, but the MACD continues to trend upward; a key support level at $10,000, if broken, may trigger sell-offs by short-term holders.

· Impact of Macroeconomic Variables: The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (if cuts exceed 100 basis points in 2025) may provide a "Davis Double Play" opportunity for Bitcoin, but the risk of stagflation may weaken its safe-haven properties.

· Miner behavior dynamics​​: If the price breaks through 110,000 USD, the selling pressure from miners may increase, but the current low selling levels suggest the market may enter a "calm rising period."

Part Two: Market Concerns Behind the "Substantive Progress" of the Sino-U.S. Trade Agreement

1. White House Statement and Agreement Outline

On May 11, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet and Trade Representative Jamison Greer jointly announced that substantial progress had been made in U.S.-China trade negotiations, with both sides reaching a principled consensus in the following areas:

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**· Market Access: ** China has committed to expanding imports of American agricultural products, and the tariff exemptions for certain American technology products have been extended.

**· Intellectual Property Protection: ** Establish a cross-border law enforcement cooperation mechanism to reduce technology transfer barriers.

**· Dispute Resolution Mechanism: ** Establish a permanent consultation platform to prevent the escalation of trade frictions.

​​2. Market Reaction and Concerns​​

Despite the official release of positive signals, the lack of details in the agreement has led investors to be cautiously optimistic:

​​· Residual Uncertainty​​： The unpredictability of Trump administration policies (such as the "one-day event" of the 2024 electronic tariff exemption) undermines market confidence, and risk assets remain under pressure before the agreement is finalized.​​

· Structural contradictions unresolved: The competitive policies of China and the United States in areas such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence (e.g., "Trade War 2.0") may continue through non-tariff means.

· Liquidity Impact Diversification: If the protocol drives the Dollar Index (DXY) down, Bitcoin may benefit from the reactivation of the "anti-fiat" narrative; however, if negotiations break down and trigger safe-haven demand, gold may siphon off funds.

3. The Chain Reaction of the Global Economy

The systemic impacts that may arise from the easing of China-U.S. trade tensions include:

· ​​Supply Chain Restructuring​​: The agreement may accelerate the trend of "nearshoring," enhancing the position of Mexico and Southeast Asia as manufacturing hubs, and increasing the demand for cross-border payments in cryptocurrency.

· ​​Expectations of Inflation Relief​​: The reduction of tariffs is expected to alleviate CPI pressure in the United States, providing room for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, indirectly benefiting risk assets.

· Geopolitical Risk Transfer: If cooperation between China and the U.S. strengthens, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the situation in the Middle East may become new sources of market volatility as "alternative crises."

Part Three: Market Game and Investment Strategies Under the Interwoven Dual Main Lines

1. The Resonance of Bitcoin and Macroeconomic Policies

· Interest Rate Sensitivity and Correlation: The correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq Index (0.78) indicates that it has not yet detached from the framework of traditional risk assets. If the China-US trade agreement boosts tech stocks, Bitcoin may benefit simultaneously.

**· Miner behavior as a leading indicator: ** Historical data shows that after miner selling pressure bottoms out, Bitcoin often enters an upward cycle (such as the bull market after miner capitulation in 2023), and the current low selling levels may indicate a similar trend.

2. Risk and Opportunity Assessment

**​​· Short-term volatility risk​​：**The accumulation of leverage in Bitcoin derivatives and the unclear details of the US-China agreement may trigger price fluctuations, with the support level at $10,000 acting as a dividing line between bulls and bears.​​

· Long-term narrative strengthening: The average daily accumulation of Bitcoin ETFs (800 coins) still exceeds miner output (450 coins), as institutionalization mitigates some market impact.

Conclusion: Certainty Logic in a Complex Market

In May 2025, the global market stands at the dual juncture of Bitcoin's "halving cycle" and the "rebalancing of Sino-American trade relations." The low selling pressure from miners and the progress of agreements from the White House seem independent, but they actually point to a core proposition: the repricing of assets under liquidity reconstruction. Whether Bitcoin breaks through its previous high or a Sino-American agreement is reached, the market will ultimately validate a truth — in the collision of the macro iron curtain and crypto narratives, only assets that possess both resilience and efficiency can win long-term victories.

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