Goldman Sachs pushes back the Federal Reserve (FED) rate cut expectations to the end of the year, lowers the likelihood of a U.S. recession.

According to Jin10 data on May 13, Goldman Sachs has adjusted its expectation for the timing of the Federal Reserve's next interest rate cut to December (previously expected in July). The bank's analysts stated: "Given the developments and the significant easing of financial conditions last month, we have raised our forecast for the year-on-year economic growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2025 by 0.5 percentage points to 1%, and lowered the probability of an economic recession occurring in the next 12 months to 35%. At the same time, we have downgraded our expectations for the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation path, expecting a peak of 3.6% (previously expected to be 3.8%)."