Crypto Market Macroeconomic Analysis: Pricing Logic Reconstruction Imminent

1. Overview

In the second quarter of 2025, the crypto market shifted from a high heat to a short-term adjustment. Although various sub-segments were active in turn, the suppressive effects of the macro environment gradually became apparent. The global trade situation is turbulent, U.S. economic data is fluctuating, and coupled with the Fed's changing expectations for interest rate cuts, the market is in a critical period waiting for the reconstruction of pricing logic. Meanwhile, new changes have emerged in policy games: certain political figures have expressed positive stances on cryptocurrencies, triggering investors' expectations for Bitcoin as a strategic asset. Currently, it is still in the "mid-term bull market pullback period", but structural opportunities are emerging, and the pricing benchmarks are undergoing macro-level changes.

II. Macroeconomic Environment: Old Framework Collapses, New Anchor Points Undecided

In May 2025, the crypto market is in a critical period of macro logical reconstruction. The traditional pricing framework is rapidly collapsing, while new valuation anchors have yet to be established, leaving the market in a "vague and anxious" macro environment.

The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is transitioning from a "data-dependent" approach to a new phase of "political and stagflationary pressure games." Recent economic data shows that while inflationary pressures have eased, overall stickiness remains, especially with high rigidity in service prices. This has led to a delay in market expectations for the timing of interest rate cuts. Although the Federal Reserve Chairman does not rule out the possibility of rate cuts within the year in public statements, he emphasizes "cautious observation" and "adherence to long-term inflation targets."

This uncertain macro environment directly affects the pricing fundamentals of crypto assets. Over the past three years, crypto assets enjoyed valuation premiums under the "zero interest rate + broad liquidity easing" backdrop, but now traditional valuation models are facing systemic failure. Although Bitcoin maintains a fluctuating upward trend, it has never been able to break through important thresholds, reflecting the disintegration of its "alignment path" with traditional macro assets. The market is beginning to realize that crypto assets need independent policy anchors and role anchors.

At the same time, the geopolitical variables that have been impacting the market since the beginning of the year are undergoing significant changes. The topic of the China-U.S. trade war has notably cooled down, and the conflict is not expected to escalate further in the short term. This has temporarily diminished the logic of "geopolitical hedging + Bitcoin as a risk-resistant asset," and the market no longer offers a premium for the "safe haven" of crypto assets, instead looking for new policy support and narrative momentum.

From a deeper perspective, the global financial system is facing a systemic process of "anchor reconstruction." The US dollar index is consolidating at a high level, the interconnected relationships between gold, government bonds, and US stocks have been disrupted, while crypto assets are caught in between, lacking the central bank endorsement typical of traditional safe-haven assets and not fully integrated into the risk control frameworks of mainstream financial institutions. This "neither risk nor safe haven" intermediate state has left the market pricing of major crypto assets in a "relatively ambiguous zone." This ambiguous macro anchor further transmits to the downstream ecosystem, leading to explosive growth in various niche markets, but they struggle to maintain momentum.

We are entering a turning window of "de-financialization" dominated by macro variables. At this stage, market liquidity and trends are no longer driven by simple asset correlations, but depend on the redistribution of policy pricing power and institutional roles. If the crypto market wants to welcome the next round of systemic re-evaluation, it must wait for new macro anchors------possibly Bitcoin becoming a national strategic reserve asset, the Fed clearly starting a rate-cutting cycle, or multiple governments around the world accepting on-chain financial infrastructure. Only when these macro-level anchor points are truly realized will there be a comprehensive return of risk appetite and a resonance upward of asset prices.

3. Policy Changes: Stablecoin Bill Approved, State-Level Bitcoin Reserves Implemented, Triggering Structural Expectations

In May 2025, the United States Senate officially passed the GENIUS Act ( stablecoin bill ), becoming one of the most influential stablecoin legislations globally. This bill marks the establishment of a regulatory framework for USD stablecoins, signaling that stablecoins are officially entering the core of the sovereign financial system.

The bill mainly focuses on three aspects: establishing the regulatory authority's management power over stablecoin issuers; providing a legal basis for the interoperability between stablecoins and traditional financial institutions; and creating a "technology sandbox" exemption mechanism for decentralized stablecoins.

The passage of the bill has triggered a triple structural shift in expectations for the crypto market:

1. The international extension path of the dollar system has presented a new paradigm of "on-chain anchoring". Stablecoins may become part of the dollar's policy transmission mechanism, strengthening its competitive advantage in emerging markets.

2. The legalization of stablecoins will drive a reassessment of on-chain financial structures. The compliant stablecoin ecosystem will welcome a period of liquidity explosion, activating the demand for DeFi and RWA asset bridging.

3. Multiple state governments have announced Bitcoin strategic reserve plans. This marks the beginning of Bitcoin being incorporated into "local fiscal asset sheets," releasing an important political signal.

These policy dynamics collectively contribute to a new structural landscape: stablecoins become "on-chain dollars", Bitcoin becomes "digital gold", both symbiotically coexisting and hedging against the traditional currency system from the perspectives of payment and reserve. This establishes a long-term certainty support for the market.

4. Market Structure: The Track Rotation is Intense, the Main Line Still Awaits Confirmation

In the second quarter of 2025, the crypto market exhibited structural contradictions: on the macro level, policy expectations are warming, but the micro structure lacks a truly consensus-driven "main track". This has led to overall market characteristics of frequent rotations, weak sustainability, and temporary "empty turns" in liquidity.

The performance of various sectors is extremely polarized, with Meme, AI, RWA, DeFi, etc., taking turns to strengthen, but each sub-track's continuous outbreak cycle lasts less than two weeks. Fund flow data shows that this rotation phenomenon essentially reflects structural liquidity flooding rather than the initiation of a bull market. There is no significant influx of new funds into the market; it is merely the existing stock of funds looking for short-term trading opportunities.

At the same time, the valuation stratification is intensifying. Leading assets continue to attract significant capital, while long-tail projects find themselves in a situation where "fundamentals cannot be priced, and expectations cannot be fulfilled." Market liquidity and attention are concentrated on a few core assets, squeezing the survival space for new projects and new narratives.

On-chain behavior is also changing. The trends of "fragmentation" and "non-financialization" in interactions are rising. Non-financial interactions such as Meme trading, airdrops, domain registration, and social networks are gradually becoming mainstream, indicating a shift in user structure towards "light interaction + heavy emotion."

From an industrial perspective, the market is still at a critical point where multiple main lines coexist but lack a leading upward trend: RWA needs to wait for regulatory implementation; Meme lacks leaders; the implementation of AI + Crypto technology and incentive mechanisms has not reached a consensus; the Bitcoin ecosystem infrastructure is not yet完善.

The current market structure can be summarized as: rotation, differentiation, concentration, and probing. Whether the future main line can take shape depends on the resonance of three factors: the emergence of innovative on-chain native blockbuster mechanisms; continued regulatory policies that release institutional benefits favorable for the long-term pricing of encryption assets; and the replenishment of mainstream funds in the secondary market.

5. Future Outlook and Strategic Recommendations

From a mid-term perspective, the variables determining the trend in the second half of the year have shifted from "macroeconomic interest rates" to "institutional implementation process + structural narratives." The implementation of the GENIUS Act and state-level Bitcoin strategic reserve pilots may mark the starting point for institutional support. Once more states incorporate BTC into their fiscal strategic reserves, crypto assets will enter an era of "quasi-sovereign endorsement." Along with the anticipated reconstruction of federal policies after the elections, this will constitute a structural catalyst that is more penetrating than the halving.

The strategy recommendation adopts a "three-layer structure":

1. Bottom position layout sovereign anchor assets: using "emerging institutional assets" represented by BTC and ETH as the core of bottom position allocation.

2. Participate in structural hotspots during high volatility windows: adopt tactical allocation for sectors such as RWA, AI, and Meme, controlling risk through time dimensions and judging entry and exit rhythms based on liquidity intensity.

3. Watch the primary market for native innovation: focus on potential new paradigms that may emerge, establishing long-term holding advantages in the early stages of the ecosystem.

In addition, attention should be paid to three major potential turning points:

• Whether certain political figures will release BTC strategic reserves, tokenize national bonds, and other systemic policy benefits;
• Has the Ethereum ecosystem brought real user growth after the upgrade, and has the L2 mechanism completed the paradigm shift?
• Will listed companies continue to finance the purchase of ETH?

The second half of 2025 will be a transitional window from a "policy vacuum to policy games." It is recommended that community members establish a coherent investment and research system with multi-period crossing capabilities, seeking the true "penetration points" from project logic, on-chain behavior, liquidity distribution, and policy context. The real bull market in the future will be a paradigm shift where crypto assets are widely accepted as institutional assets, supported by sovereignty, and where users truly migrate.

VI. Conclusion

The current crypto market is in a state of ambiguity: macro logic is uncertain, policy variables are in a tug-of-war, market hotspots are rotating rapidly, and liquidity has not completely shifted towards risk assets. However, a systemic reassessment and valuation anchoring under the competition of sovereign states is taking shape. The real market uptrend will be triggered by the "establishment of the political role of crypto assets" leading to a comprehensive reassessment. The turning point is approaching, and the winners will ultimately belong to those who understand the macro environment and are patient in their positioning.