Conversation Record: Communication with Trader HighFreedom

HighFreedom is an experienced cryptocurrency trader who previously worked in brokerage conducting macroeconomic analysis. In this conversation, he shares his trading strategies, insights on the macroeconomy, and predictions for the future trends of the cryptocurrency market.

1. About Trader HighFreedom

1. Trading Strategy

HighFreedom's trading strategy mainly includes two aspects:

• Earn directional returns: Hold Bitcoin for the long term during a bull market to gain from overall price increases.
• Earn volatility profits: Under the premise of controlling leverage, establish a coin-based long position when the Bitcoin price drops to a suitable range. Close the position after the price rises, increasing the Bitcoin holdings.

2. Reasons for Strategy Formation

After experiencing several rounds of market cycles, HighFreedom believes that this strategy aligns better with its risk preference and capital management needs:

• Can effectively avoid the risk of missing out
• Reduce holding costs
• Perform well in a high-risk, high-drawdown market environment.

3. Trading strategy logic

• Core Logic: Combine directional returns with volatility returns, ensuring not to miss out on the overall increase while using volatility operations to increase positions.
• Risk Control: Reduce the risk of premature selling and missing out by going long with a coin-based approach, especially during sudden rapid market increases.

4. Expected Returns

• Long-term returns: Achieve an overall return of 3-5 times during a bull market cycle.
• Drawdown Management: Expected drawdown is controlled at 20%-30%, and in extreme cases, it may reach 40%.

5. Implementation Considerations

• Leverage Control: Strictly control the level of leverage, it is recommended to keep it within 50%.
• Timing: Choose the right market timing, this strategy is best suited for volatile conditions in a bull market.

2. Macroeconomics, US Stock Market, and Cryptocurrency Market

1. Why pay attention to the US macroeconomy

• Market participants are divided into on-exchange participants and off-exchange participants. On-exchange participants mainly focus on the cycles of cryptocurrencies, popular sectors, etc., while off-exchange participants view Bitcoin as a risk asset and flexibly enter and exit based on liquidity conditions.
• With the development of the market, the influence of off-market funds has increased, so it is necessary to pay attention to the US stock market and the overall macroeconomic situation in the United States.

2. Market Structure of US Stocks and Positioning of Cryptocurrencies

HighFreedom compares the US stock market to a pyramid structure:

• Underlying: low-risk, low-return currency funds, short-term government bonds, etc.
• Mid-level: stock market, from stable cash flow blue-chip stocks to high-growth technology stocks
• Upper layer: high-risk, high-reward small-cap stocks and thematic funds
• Top tier: Extremely high-risk concept stocks and meme stocks

In this structure, Bitcoin is positioned as an asset between the Russell 2000 and ARKK, possessing certain fundamentals and growth potential, and is regarded as "digital gold".

3. How to determine the trend of the altcoin market

• When the price of Bitcoin rises to a certain level, some funds may shift to riskier altcoins.
• The trends of altcoins are affected by the overall market liquidity. If high-risk assets in the US stock market perform well, the altcoin market may see an increase.
• The recent market has experienced leveraged liquidations both on and off exchanges, and a macro-level reversal is expected, potentially ushering in a new bull market cycle in the fourth quarter.

4. Steps for Beginners to Learn Trading

• Basic Learning: Obtain CFA Level I, systematically study the fundamentals of financial markets.
• Deliberate training: Pay attention to market dynamics every day, analyze the reasons for the rise and fall, and cultivate market sensitivity.
• Multi-dimensional analysis: Focus on on-chain data, the fundamentals of different cryptocurrencies, etc., to construct your own trading logic.

5. Stop Doing List

• Over-leveraging: Strictly control leverage levels, paying special attention to the behavior of large coin holders.
• Over-reliance on indicators: As the market changes, the effectiveness of some indicators may be weakened, requiring continuous adaptation to new market logic.

3. Recommended Traders

1. Fu Peng: Analyst at Northeast Securities, with profound insights into USD assets.
2. Arthur Hayes: has a deep understanding of the U.S. macroeconomy.
3. Victor: Fund Manager, seasoned veteran of the cryptocurrency market.
4. Benson Sung: A seasoned trader from the last bull market, providing valuable cyclical indicators.

Conclusion

HighFreedom believes that the current market is at the bottom range and a new bull market may emerge in the fourth quarter. He advises investors to pay attention to on-chain data, US stock market risk appetite, and other indicators, while maintaining patience and risk awareness. For beginners, he recommends systematically learning financial knowledge, developing market intuition, and building their own trading logic.