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Recently, the non-farm payroll data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics was unexpectedly revised downward, causing a brief turmoil in the financial markets. The magnitude of this data adjustment has left market participants generally shocked.
Specifically, the number of non-farm jobs added in May was significantly revised down from the originally reported 144,000 to just 19,000, and the June data was also revised down from 147,000 to 14,000. The total downward revision over the two months reached 258,000, which is about one-tenth of the original figures. Such a large-scale data revision is historically uncommon and inevitably raised market doubts about the reliability of the data.
Such weak employment data should have provided strong support for the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates. However, due to the timing and magnitude of the data revisions being quite unusual, the market's reaction has been complex. On one hand, weak employment data is often seen as a favorable factor for rate cuts; on the other hand, such a large-scale "misalignment downgrade" has also raised speculation about potential human adjustments to the data, and this uncertainty has intensified market volatility in the short term.
Nevertheless, as the market gradually digests this information, investors may refocus on the implications behind this weak data—that the Federal Reserve may have to consider accelerating the pace of interest rate cuts. If this interpretation ultimately takes hold, we are likely to see a gradual warming of sentiment in risk assets, including U.S. stocks and the cryptocurrency market.
It is worth noting that if such a weak employment situation had appeared as early as the release of the data, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell might have taken a more dovish stance in his recent monetary policy statement. In this case, it is not difficult to understand the market's doubts about the Federal Reserve's current policy stance.
Overall, the significant revision of the non-farm payroll data undoubtedly brings a certain level of uncertainty to the market. However, in the long run, it may become one of the important factors driving a shift in the Federal Reserve's policy. Investors need to closely monitor subsequent economic data and the statements of Federal Reserve officials to better grasp the market direction.