SHIB Price Prediction: Is Shiba Inu in Danger? 91 trillion SHIB suddenly becomes critical, key support faces a test.

According to Gate market data, as of August 4th, the price of Shiba Inu (SHIB) fluctuated narrowly between 0.000012 and 0.000013 USD, down 25% from the high point of 0.000016 USD on July 21st. Behind this weak performance, a key data point has raised market alert: the amount of SHIB held on exchanges surged to a historical peak of 849 trillion coins. This huge number—close to 14.4% of the circulating supply of 589 trillion SHIB—has become the sword of Damocles hanging over SHIB.

##91 trillion SHIB alert: Whale movements and the battle for key support levels

On-chain data and changes in exchange holdings reveal the underlying reasons for the current SHIB price crisis:

1. Exchange supply surges: Since the end of July, 849 trillion SHIB has flowed into centralized exchange wallets, setting a historical record. Such accumulation usually signals that large holders ("whales") are preparing to sell.
2. Key Support Level Contest: The current price hovers around 0.000012 USD, where there are 1.19 trillion SHIB buy orders accumulated, forming technical support. If this level is broken, it may trigger a waterfall decline.
3. Massive liquidation risk: The derivatives market has a long position liquidation risk of up to 63 million USD, which may exacerbate selling pressure.

This enormous number—14.4% of the circulating supply of nearly 589 trillion SHIB—has become the sword of Damocles hanging over SHIB.

##Bullish Strength: The Balance of Burn, Staking, and Ecosystem Upgrades

Facing selling pressure, the SHIB community and project team are countering the downward trend through three forces:

Token Burn: Deflationary Mechanism Acceleration

• 600 million burned in two days: At the end of July, within 48 hours, the SHIB burn rate surged by 16,700%, with over 600 million tokens permanently removed.
• Shibarium Empowerment: The gas fee automatic destruction mechanism of the Layer 2 network Shibarium has become routine, with a cumulative transaction volume exceeding 1.4 billion, continuously reducing Circulating Supply.

Staking Lock-up: Creating Supply Shortage

• 4.6 trillion SHIB removed from circulation: Tokens worth approximately 58.7 million USD have been staked and locked, accounting for nearly 0.8% of the Circulating Supply.
• Staking is deflationary: By reducing immediate selling pressure, staking effectively creates an "artificial supply shortage," providing a buffer for prices.

Ecological Upgrade: TREAT and Alpha Layer's Value Breakthrough

• Shib Alpha Layer Launch: On August 1st, the team announced a focus on the smart infrastructure development of the TREAT token, enhancing data privacy and modular functionalities.
• Astro Nova Collaboration: The newly exposed strategic partnership will expand the utility of SHIB in cross-chain application scenarios.

##August Price Prediction: 32% Upside Potential and Key Resistance

Based on technical indicators and market sentiment, SHIB faces two possible paths in August:

bullish scenario: breaking through the 0.000016 USD resistance

• 32% monthly growth target: CoinCodex predicts that if the breakthrough is successful, SHIB may reach 0.00001731 USD (approximately Rp0.28) by the end of August.
• Technical indicator support: The current RSI is 37.82, close to the oversold range, and the %B value is 0.08, near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating an increased probability of a rebound.

Bearish scenario: Break below the 0.000011 USD support

• Liquidation domino effect: If it falls below the July low of 0.00001108 USD, it could trigger a chain liquidation of 63 million USD.
• Macroeconomic policy risk: The escalation of Trump's tariff policy and the Federal Reserve's delay in interest rate cuts have led to a 6% fall in SHIB on August 1.

##Long-term goal: Is $0.01 realistic?

Despite the team's claim that "they firmly believe SHIB will eventually break through $0.01", the mathematical challenges are enormous:

• Market Cap Ceiling: $0.01 requires SHIB market cap to soar to $58.9 trillion - equivalent to three times the total of Apple Inc., surpassing the current total market cap of global cryptocurrencies.
• Token supply paradox: Even with accelerated burn, the current Circulating Supply of 589 trillion needs to be reduced by 99.8% to possibly support this price.
• Analyst's pragmatic target: A more realistic path is a phased rise, such as the $0.000081 target proposed by analyst Javon Marks (+500% from the current price).

##Conclusion: Short-term risks intensify, ecological evolution will determine success or failure

August will be a critical game period for SHIB. The battle between the selling pressure of 910 trillion and the support line at 0.000012 USD will determine the short-term direction. Although there is room for a rebound on the technical side, investors need to be wary of two major risks:

1. Exchange whales selling off: 84.9 trillion SHIB could be converted to sell orders at any time.
2. Policy Black Swan: Escalating global trade frictions may severely impact risk assets.

The key to long-term breakthroughs lies in the ecological landing: whether the growth of Shibarium's trading volume, the TREAT token economic model, and collaborations like Astro Nova can bring real users and demand. If successful, SHIB may transform from a meme coin into a truly functional ecological token—this is the fundamental cornerstone that supports the price.

At this moment, 1.19 trillion SHIB buy orders are quietly resting at the 0.000012 dollar mark, silently awaiting a decisive battle that will determine the fate of bulls and bears.