2025 TOKENS

FDV Traps, BTC Hangovers, Volume Crashes, Prices Plummet!

Most of 2025’s hyped token launches quickly became bagholder nightmares.

Huge day-one trading volumes vanish rapidly, leaving thin order books and growing spreads. Once the exit doors start closing, even a modest amount of selling has a significantly negative impact on the price.

Sky-high FDVs hit like a gut punch. Private investors score big on cheap entries, cashing in on fat markups. When retail spots the huge markup between private sale and public prices, the token instantly loses its shine.

▫️REFLEXIVE SENTIMENT PRICE LOOPS
Early red candles invite more red candles. Tokens that lag BTC out of the gate tend to keep lagging.

▫️EARLY RELATIVE STRENGHT
Tokens that outperform BTC in their first few weeks of trading often keep surging, while those that falter early rarely recover. Early strength is a solid signal, but it’s not a sure bet for long-term gains.

Remember that, hyped token launches are far from a guaranteed success!!!

▫️SUPPLY OVERHAND
The gap between private and public investor valuations is a killer. Most 2025 launches dumped tokens on the public at huge premiums, and the market clapped back hard.

For example Bera Chain opened public trading at a massive ~$4.5B FDV. Despite being the most hyped token launched, Bera was the worst performing token in 2025. We’re not in a 2021 moonfest anymore-traders are wise to being exit liquidity for private investors. Sky-high public premiums almost always drag prices down.

• When private investors are already up 20-50x pre-launch, who’s dumb enough to buy at the top? Always check the vesting schedule and circulating supply! A low initial circulating supply can be a bullish signal (don’t even think about shorting those tokens!) as long as the unlock schedule is reasonable.

▫️TOKEN LAUNCHES AGAINST BTC
Dropping a token right after a big BTC rally often leads to a brutal hangover for new projects.

For example ZORA’s launch was after a bullish BTC trend and… you know the outcome. Does a flat BTC market give new tokens a better shot? Not always 😂-Bera Chain hit a sleepy March market and still tanked fast.

Sky-high BTC candles before a launch tilt the odds against a token. When BTC’s pumping, approach new launches with extra caution.

Early outperformance while BTC does sideways is combustible in the best way, by contract, early weakness after a BTC spikes is a flashing red sign.

▫️TRADING VOLUME
Launch day brings roaring order books, but the hype often fizzles fast. Volume isn’t a crystal ball for gains, but it’s the pulse of a new token. Post-launch, volumes start high-if they crash by 50% or more in the first month, it’s a clear sign the market’s losing interest.

🔺REMEMBER🔺

• Outpacing BTC early? That’s the greenest flag you’ll see-pure rocket fuel. Lagging behind? Brace for a red-candle bloodbath.

• Sky-high public premiums are a death sentence for price action. Don’t be the exit liquidity for private whales.

• Tokens launching post-BTC rally get choked out, gasping for air. Flat BTC markets? They give new tokens room to breathe and moon.

• Day-one volume vanishes? The price is next to crater. Watch that heartbeat fade, and run.