Bitcoin black swan alert! Bitwise warns of a collapse in U.S. employment, is BTC facing a crisis or an opportunity?

The U.S. July employment report triggered rare market turbulence, with record negative revisions causing Bitcoin (BTC) to experience a short-term big dump, and capital flows and policy expectations undergoing severe range-bound fluctuations. Bitwise Europe's research director, André Dragosch, has repeatedly warned that this may be a precursor to a historic "black swan" event for Bitcoin. This article will analyze the potential impacts of the collapse of U.S. employment data on Bitcoin, the Federal Reserve (FED) policy direction, as well as the risks and opportunities that BTC may face in the future.

The U.S. employment data came in cold, causing severe market fluctuations

In July, non-farm employment increased by only 73,000, with May and June being revised down by a larger margin of 258,000, resulting in a three-month average hiring number reaching a new low since the pandemic. Bloomberg's chief economist Anna Wong pointed out that this negative revision of three standard deviations has occurred with only a 0.2% probability in the past 30 years, making it an economic shock of "black swan" level. The labor market narrative has been completely overturned, shifting from recovery to rapid cooling.

Bitwise: Employment Collapse or Trigger BTC Black Swan, The Federal Reserve (FED) Policy Becomes Key

Bitwise Europe's research director Dragosch stated that this employment revision may force the Federal Reserve (FED) to significantly cut interest rates earlier, with a possibility of a 50 basis point easing action as early as September. He warned that any negative non-farm data could trigger market risk aversion and a sudden shift in policy, putting Bitcoin at risk of severe volatility and even collapse. CME data shows that the probability of a rate cut in September has reached 91%.

Bitcoin price range-bound, with signals of loose capital flow

(Source: Trading View)

Under the influence of employment data and macroeconomic uncertainty, Bitcoin once fell to $111,920, hitting a new low since early July. Nevertheless, as expectations for interest rate cuts heated up, BTC price rebounded in the short-term, and the spot Bitcoin ETF also ended four consecutive days of outflows, recording a net inflow of $9.16 million on August 7, as funds began to position themselves ahead of easing policies.

Future Outlook: Crises and Opportunities Coexist, Margin for Error Has Disappeared

Whether the "black swan" warning from Bloomberg and Bitwise comes true will depend on upcoming employment and inflation data, as well as the Federal Reserve's policy response. The market is in an extreme dichotomy: if the data cools again, risk aversion will dominate the market; however, if the Federal Reserve actively loosens, Bitcoin may迎來 a new round of funding push. The only certainty is that the market has no margin for error, and BTC investors need to closely monitor macro dynamics and policy risks.

Conclusion

The black swan of the US job market is approaching, and Bitwise warns that Bitcoin may face a critical moment. Crisis and opportunity coexist, and investors need to respond cautiously to policy changes and seize potential new opportunities amidst market volatility.