#ETH# Update

I told you many times that once ETH hit the 4000-4100 range, the resistance wouldn't work for another time so it would be smarter not to short that resistance - and here we are with ETH reaching up to $4327 without a pullback as of now.

Now let's look at ETH in terms of TA, liquidity and CVDs to come up with a plan.

Technical Analysis

-1.618 extension of the Monday Range is at 4361.
1.618 extension of the last drop is at 4310.
The first extension of the 21xx-39xx range is between 4152 and 4335.
0.886 level of the cycle (4878-878) is at 4422.
4377 is the May 2021 high.

This shows that the 4300-4400 range has the potential for an LTF pullback. I would not use this range to place short positions, but to take partial profits from the LTF long positions.

In case of a pullback, I would add to the long position at the 4000-4100 range, and at 38xx in case ETH gives that opportunity.

Liquidation Analysis

The first long liquidation zone is at 4134. I don't think the one at 37xx is significant because liquidation zones work as magnets, and I don't see any reason for a 15% pullback now. We will re-consider that if ETH goes below 4000.

Retail Analysis

True retail short ratio is at 53.56% down from 56.66%. Whale vs retail delta is significantly high and also open interest is rising. This means that retail is still trying to short ETH while whales are long. If this trend continues, there will be more potential for short squeeze.

SUMMARY

I think ETH is destined to go at least to the ATH and potentially to 5k and above before the end of the month. Probably, the correction in September will re-test 4100, or the ATH level (4878) depending on how far it goes.

However, if you have LTF long positions, you can take some profits here betweeen 4300 and 4400.