U.S. research institution: A new round of liquidity cycle may drive the Bitcoin bull run to continue until 2026.

On August 15, a research institution released its latest report stating that the U.S. market is entering a new cycle of liquidity release, and structural funding support may drive Bitcoin and risk assets to continue rising, with the market expected to extend until 2026. The current funding structure, credit environment, and the initial stages of previous bull runs are quite similar: abundant liquidity, improving credit environment, and a policy shift towards dovishness, with multiple favourable information resonating to push asset prices upward.

Since the fourth quarter of 2018, the scale of U.S. money market funds has rapidly expanded from $3 trillion to $7.4 trillion, setting a new historical high, with current annual interest income reaching $320 billion, constituting an important incremental fund flowing into high-yield assets. At the same time, corporate buybacks have also significantly accelerated. Since 2025, the announced buyback amount has reached $984 billion, and the annual scale is expected to exceed $1.1 trillion. Currently, volatility is at a low level, and these funds will continue to flow into U.S. stocks and boost valuations.

The structure of the financial system is further amplifying the impact of liquidity. Since 2008, the Federal Reserve has started paying interest on reserves to banks, with this amount currently reaching $3.4 trillion, generating an annual interest of $176 billion. In the current high-interest-rate environment, this mechanism has made money market funds and commercial banks the main beneficiaries. The pace of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts has lagged behind market expectations for 32 consecutive months, and to close this gap, approximately 62 basis points of cuts will still be needed in the coming months.

Credit issuance is recovering. Since April 2025, U.S. commercial and industrial loans have increased by a cumulative $74 billion, indicating early signs of a new round of credit expansion cycle. Since June, credit spreads have continued to narrow, improving the financing environment, which historically has been Favourable Information for Bitcoin, and this trend has already been partially reflected in Bitcoin's price performance. Inflation is expected to gradually fall back to the Federal Reserve's target range of 2%, and volatility is converging, providing more ample policy space for a rate cut in September.

The fiscal side is also increasing liquidity injection through bond issuance. Since the "Great Beautiful Act" raised the debt ceiling by 5 trillion dollars, the Treasury has net issued 789 billion dollars in government bonds in less than six weeks. This large-scale bond issuance coincides with Bitcoin starting a new bull run. Historically, during the fiscal expansion period led by Trump, Bitcoin prices often strengthened in tandem with government bond issuance.