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Analysis from the 19th to the 22nd
Personally, analysis is not very useful, it's mostly nonsense.
Many people refer to the US stock market, some refer to the index.
My estimation of the market progress is mainly based on the reasons behind the current price range formation. For example, a large amount of data accumulated over the past half month shows that the reasons for the mainstream surge stem from the entry of institutions and aggressive capital manipulation, which has nothing to do with retail investors. It’s like a chess game, where the players are large investment institutions, including Wall Street, US stocks, and the barbaric intervention of hedge funds. Currently, Ethereum is no longer under the control of its original developers or early shareholders; gradually, capital has taken control. From this perspective, technology is all nonsense; capital has secretly locked Ethereum as a capital commodity. When treating a commodity, the primary focus of capital is layout, profit, and retreat. The overall strategy was the same before, the difference being that it was originally operated by Ethereum’s early adopters and whales, who would buy low and sell high. Now the dominant players have changed to capital institutions, so it’s essential to pay attention to real-time data on staking amounts. For instance, currently, the data for exiting staking has reached a historical high, and the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts suggests that a correction in Ethereum is inevitable.
According to the current institutional queue to exit staking data, in the next two weeks, the switching point is around 3900. Those who want to go long can set a position around 3900, with a stop loss at 3840. If this strong support is broken, it indicates that capital is more greedy, and there will definitely be a low point to buy in, thus controlling the Ethereum market in the future. If 3840 is broken, we will directly look to short around 2900! Next, I will layout around this point, focusing on low leverage and high margin, with each opening taking less than two points of the total position, both long and short are acceptable!
Friendly reminder: When you profit for a week in a row, learn to use part of last week's profits for stop-loss next week, and you will truly learn to play contracts without pressure! Using your principal for contracts will definitely be influenced by market sentiment! When you have emotions, you have already lost; this is the capital market.