8.20

The panic index has fallen to 44, with an average of 73 last week, marking the lowest level since June 22.
Two major events this week will impact the market, and some funds may flee early; BTC's ETF has seen an outflow of 500 million in the past few days. Early Thursday morning, there will be a Federal Reserve meeting to decide whether to cut interest rates in September. On Friday, Powell will give a speech, which may be bearish regarding the discussion of not cutting rates in the face of stubborn inflation.

BTC
According to the expectations mentioned yesterday, we would pay attention to the second bottom test or pin bar, and currently the market has experienced a second bottom test but did not create a pin bar. When the market does not create a pin bar for a day, it leads to panic in the market. Right now, Bitcoin is particularly crucial. Initially, we also mentioned the need to guard against the daily divergence of Bitcoin. Just as expected, after the divergence formed, there was a rapid pullback, which has now reached a very critical point, both the neckline of the daily level and a dividing line between long and short for the fast and slow lines. Due to some news today, we should focus on whether the level of 112,300 can hold. If it cannot hold, it will move around 108,700 and 105,000. If this level cannot stabilize, it will also face an upcoming adjustment at the weekly level. Short-term resistance to watch is 114,600-115,900.

ETH
Ethereum is the same; it is still in the process of retracement. Overall, the pullback has not yet ended, and even if it does end, it will take time to recover. For those who are optimistic about Ethereum's future, entering a position here can be a good opportunity to bet on a rebound. In the short term, pay attention to the support levels of 4020-3878 and resistance levels of 4175-4240.

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