Reviewing the Qubic "51% Attack" Monero coin incident is essentially a psychological warfare.

Author: 0xTodd

The recent so-called "51% attack" on Monero (XMR) initiated by Qubic is, in fact, a well-planned psychological warfare and propaganda strategy, rather than a genuine power takeover through hash rate. Community analysis has revealed:

Qubic's actual computing power during the attack is only about 35%, not the 51% it claims, but by using the "selfish mining" method, it continuously mined 6 blocks, briefly forming the longest chain, which could invalidate the blocks of honest miners, theoretically enabling a double-spending attack.

This type of attack is essentially a deterrent: by demonstrating potential attack capabilities, it lures miners to join the Qubic mining pool out of economic considerations, resulting in their computing power actually exceeding 50% in the aftermath, creating a backlash effect.

Qubic did not actually perform double-spending operations (as exchange deposits require 10 confirmations), and the attack relies on probability and temporary hash power leasing, more as psychological pressure and market promotion.

The project team has claimed that the next target is Dogecoin, but analysts believe that it is based on ASIC mining machines, making it difficult to attack. The current statement may still be part of a psychological warfare.

The entire incident is seen as a typical case of "Fake it till you make it," highlighting the actual influence that can be brought about by the combination of public opinion manipulation and the demonstration of computing power in the cryptocurrency field.

A few follow-ups: Exciting, this is psychological warfare. Since last week when $XMR was officially announced by Qubic to have undergone a 51% attack, the community has drawn several conclusions in hindsight:

1. Qubic did not actually possess 51% of the computing power during the so-called 51% attack last week, it only temporarily reached around 35% for a short period.

2. Qubic continuously mined 6 XMR blocks, suspected of selfish mining.

Selfish mining refers to the practice of mining a block but not immediately publishing it. Instead, the miner waits until they have mined six blocks in total to release them all at once, creating the longest chain. This causes the five blocks from honest miners (the second longest chain) to become invalid, resulting in a double spend.

PS: I roughly sketched a draft that looks decent.

In fact, even if I only have 1% of the computing power, I could theoretically mine 6 blocks, although the probability is very small, while having 35% computing power gives a much larger probability.

I did a simple calculation. This is just a natural probability; based on Monero's 1440 blocks a day, with a 35% hash rate, the mathematical expectation is that an attack can be successful 2.6 times a day.

This doesn't even account for the bonus from selfish mining; if you do, it would be even higher. Otherwise, Qubic might not be willing to spend money to rent computing power to impact 6 blocks in a short time.

Why is this mode called selfish? It's because when blocks are withheld, in order to ensure the success rate, they often do not contain transactions, resulting in many empty blocks that waste block space.

Back to the point, and Qubic also does not have double spending. Many exchanges require 10 block confirmations for XMR deposits, of course, it also has no motivation to actually attack.

So you can understand that Qubic has neither 51% hash power nor 51% attacks, it just flexed a little and then issued a press release claiming to have completed a 51% attack.

But why is it called psychological warfare? Because once the event occurred, many miners surprisingly surrendered and really joined the Qubic mining pool, causing Qubic's hash power to actually exceed 50% as of yesterday.

So this is not a battle of computing power, but a battle of psychology.

This is a kind of deterrent for miners - if you do not join the Qubic mining pool, the blocks you mine in the future may be invalidated, affecting your yield; if you join, although it is aiding the oppressor, not only will you incur losses, but even double-mining miners are not all tough, many still have to consider the economic account.

Immediately after, they officially announced that their next target is Dogecoin. However, I believe that Dogecoin is based on Litecoin mining machines, which have ASICs, so it may not be that simple. But they are experts in psychological warfare. Therefore, this announcement itself may be some new form of psychological warfare.

Incredible, this is called Fake it till you make it, which is hard to translate; literally it means: "Pretend to blow it up until it turns into the real thing."