Despite short-term pressure, XRP may see an 85% pump breakthrough in the fourth quarter.

Ripple (XRP) fell below the psychological barrier of 3 USD this week, continuing a two-week pullback trend, with a short-term bearish outlook. However, technical charts and on-chain data suggest that the fourth quarter could become a breakout period for XRP, with a potential pump of up to 85%, and it may even surpass the 4 USD mark.

Short-term pressure: 3 dollars lost

(Source: Trading View)

XRP has recently encountered strong resistance near $3, pulling back to the $2.85 range, ending the rebound momentum after reaching a local high of $3.66 in July.

Although the short-term trend looks bearish, the technical structure indicates that this pullback may just be building momentum for the next wave of increase.

Market Fractals: Historical Trends Repeating

The so-called "market fractals" refer to price structures that repeat across different time frames, often leading to similar trend outcomes.

On the daily chart, the current XRP trend is highly similar to the pattern from January to April 2025 - when the price pulled back from $3.40 to $1.60, followed by a strong rebound.

Currently, the new Fair Value Gap (FVG) range is located at 2.32-2.66 USD. If this area is filled, it will lay the foundation for a new round of expansion.

Fourth Quarter Breakthrough Conditions and Target Price

According to the diminishing returns model, if the market structure continues in its current pattern, XRP may rise by 60%-85% in the fourth quarter, with a potential target price of 4.35 dollars.

Key resistance: $3.85 (entering price discovery phase after breaking through)

Initial support: $2.65-2.33 (potential whale accumulation zone)

On a macro level, if the United States initiates interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter, it will provide additional momentum for risk assets, potentially helping XRP break through its initial target and continue its upward trend.

Whale on-chain data: selling pressure nearing the end

(Source: CryptoQuant)

CryptoQuant data shows that large XRP holders (whale addresses) have recently reduced their holdings to near peak levels, and the 90-day moving average indicates that distribution pressure is waning.

Historically, in the second half of 2024, whales built large positions in the $2.00-$2.50 range, subsequently driving the price up.

Currently, the potential accumulation zone may appear again in the range of 2.65-2.33 dollars. Once the whales start to accumulate again, it will provide strong financial support for a rebound in the fourth quarter.

Conclusion

Although XRP's short-term trend is bearish, market fractals, FVG technical structures, and on-chain signals from whales all point to a potential strong rebound in the fourth quarter. If the price breaks through the key resistance of $3.85, XRP is expected to enter a price discovery phase, challenging $4.35 or even higher. Investors should closely monitor the capital dynamics in the $2.65-$2.33 range, as this may become the starting point for the next upward movement.