Behind the 10% big dump of XRP in two weeks: short-term holders buying the dip against long-term holders accelerating selling! On-chain data reveals key levels in the battle between bulls and bears.

Ripple ( XRP ) has fallen nearly 10% in the past two weeks, with on-chain data revealing significant divergence: short-term holders are aggressively buying the dip, while long-term holders continue dumping. Glassnode's on-chain indicators show that the proportion of the 1-12 month holdings group has reached a new high for the year, but the "Liveliness" indicator rising suggests that long-term chips are loosening. In the Bull vs Bear Battle, whether XRP can hold the key support at $2.63 has become the market focus.

[On-chain data reveals the divergence of investor camps]

(XPR HODL Waves | Source: Glassnode)

Since August 14, XRP has continued to weaken, leading to a significant divergence in investor behavior. Glassnode's HODL Waves holding period data shows that the two major investor groups are adopting completely opposite strategies: short-term holders with a holding period of 1-3 months are increasing their positions against the trend, with their holding ratio rising to 9.51%, an increase of 8% over the past two weeks; meanwhile, the proportion of medium-term holders with a holding period of 6-12 months has climbed to 23.19%, setting a new year-to-date high, indicating that medium to short-term investors generally believe that the current price level has buy the dip value.

[Long-term holder selling pressure becomes a hidden concern]

(XPR Liveliness | Glassnode)

In stark contrast to the buying the dip sentiment, long-term holders (LTH) are continuing to sell. A key indicator that reflects the activity of long-term chips — XRP Liveliness has been steadily rising since August 19. This indicator measures the trend of long-term holdings through the ratio of "destroyed coin days / accumulated coin days." An increase in the indicator suggests that dormant tokens are being activated and circulating, which usually corresponds to long-term holders realizing profits or transferring their holdings, creating additional selling pressure.

[Bull vs Bear Battle Key Price Level Analysis]

The current market focus is on whether new buying can offset the selling pressure from veteran investors. Bulls need to push the price to reclaim the psychological level of $3 and further challenge the technical resistance level of $3.22 to confirm a trend reversal. If bears gain the upper hand, the price may test the support level of $2.63, which will be a key line of defense in determining the subsequent trend.

[Technical and On-chain Resonance Analysis]

From the perspective of on-chain technology, although the buy the dip behavior of medium and short-term holders provides liquidity support to the market, the selling trend of long-term holders may limit the rebound height. Historical data shows that when the Liveliness indicator continues to rise, assets often require a longer time for bottom consolidation. Investors are advised to focus on the breakout direction in the range of $2.63-$3.00, as the break of this range will determine the mid-term trend.

Conclusion

XRP is facing a historic showdown between Bull vs Bear forces: on one side are mid-term investors who believe the price is undervalued and are frantically buying the dip, while on the other side are long-term holders who choose to take profits after years of holdings. This on-chain divergence intuitively reflects the market's varying perceptions of XRP's valuation. It is recommended that investors closely monitor daily on-chain data updates, especially focusing on the rate of change in long-term holders' holdings and the net inflow indicators from exchanges. Before a clear direction is established, it is advisable to adopt a staggered buying strategy, with a key focus on preventing tail risks below the $2.63 support.