The Fed may lower interest rates by 25 basis points in September, becoming the benchmark, with the easing in the fourth quarter possibly exceeding expectations.

[Chain News] On August 23, Huatai Securities' fixed income research indicated that the current situation in the United States suggests that employment growth faces downside risks, and changes in the risk balance point may require policy adjustments. After Powell's speech, the market traded on Fed easing, and the probability of a soft landing for the U.S. fundamentals rose, with prices of major asset classes rising across the board except for the dollar. Looking at the future monetary policy path, the Fed's policy inclination is expected to be relatively loose, with a 25bp rate cut in September likely being the benchmark scenario. The probability of two 25bp rate cuts in the fourth quarter may be higher than one. If we further consider the impact of the Trump administration on the Fed, the magnitude of this easing cycle may exceed market expectations.