Bitcoin ( BTC ) price prediction: Three major on-chain signals reveal that BTC may rebound in the strong support range of $93,000 - $110,000 | Latest analysis for August 2025

Despite Bitcoin's recent drop of 12% from its historical high, raising concerns in the market, Glassnode's on-chain data and technical indicators indicate that the current adjustment is more likely a healthy pullback within the bull run. With unrealized losses at only 0.5%, a dense cost basis cluster in the range of $93,000 to $110,000, and the historical bullish false breakout pattern of the 100-day moving average reappearing, all point towards BTC potentially entering a new round of Rebound.

1. The relative unrealized loss rate is extremely low, and the vast majority of holders are still in a profitable state.

According to the latest on-chain data analysis from Glassnode, the "Relative Unrealized Loss" (RUL) indicator for Bitcoin is currently only 0.5%, indicating that there has not been a large-scale panic sell-off in the market. This data suggests that only a very small number of investors who bought at the peak are currently in a loss position, while the vast majority of BTC holders have a cost basis that remains below the current price (crypto term: HODLer profit ratio). Historical data shows that during the bottom phase of a bear market, the RUL indicator often exceeds 30%, forcing a large number of investors to sell at a loss. The currently extremely low loss ratio reflects a solid foundation among Bitcoin investors, and this round of decline is more likely to be short-term volatility rather than a trend reversal.

2. A strong support cluster is formed between $93,000 and $110,000, becoming a key demand zone.

The on-chain cost basis distribution chart shows that since December 2024, Bitcoin has formed a dense supply cluster in the range of $93,000 to $110,000 (cryptographic term: UTXO cost density analysis). This range represents a large number of investors buying Bitcoin within this price range, creating significant psychological and technical support zones. When the price pulls back to this area, these investors tend to hold their coins rather than sell at a loss, effectively alleviating downward pressure. Although macro risks or leverage liquidations may trigger a short-term breach, the existence of this cluster provides structural cushioning for the market, in line with the typical characteristics of an "accumulation zone."

3. The historical pattern of the 100-day moving average is repeating, or the bull run false breakdown may reappear.

Technical analysis shows that the recent drop of Bitcoin below the 100-day moving average (MA) pattern is highly similar to the trend at the beginning of 2024. At that time, BTC quickly rebounded after breaking below this average line, surging from $42,000 to over $60,000 in just a few weeks (historical data review). Analyst Merlijn points out that the current market is also showing signs of a "Bullish Fakeout," which may clean out weak positions before pushing the price towards the target of $130,000. This repeating pattern reinforces the judgment that "a drop is an opportunity," in line with the typical mid-cycle adjustment characteristics during Bitcoin's periodic rises.

(Source: TradingView)

[Conclusion] Based on the comprehensive on-chain holding data, cost cluster distribution, and historical backtesting of technical indicators, Bitcoin's current pullback is more likely to serve as a window for new capital allocation rather than the beginning of a bear market. Investors should focus on the effectiveness of support in the range of $93,000 - $110,000, and should be cautious of the impact of macroeconomic changes on short-term sentiment (Risk warning: High-volatility assets require careful position management). The market's next key breakout target is aimed at the previous high area of $130,000.