Bitcoin breaks the long term support line: False signal or warning of further fall?

Bitcoin has fallen more than 12.8% from the all-time high of $124,457, breaking the long-term bullish support line and raising concerns among investors about the risk of a deeper correction.

Weekly BTC price chart | Source: TradingViewHowever, history shows that such corrections can ultimately trap bears.

Bitcoin is at risk of falling to 80,000 dollars if RSI support weakens

In previous cycles, Bitcoin often recovered along the parabolic support line, seeing it as a pillar of bullish runs. Temporary falls below this parabolic line do not always have serious consequences, as long as the upward momentum measured by the Relative Strength Index RSI( remains strong.

The real issue often arises when Bitcoin simultaneously loses both parabolic support and RSI.

!)[bitcoin]https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-d0f53c0b2c5d276af3ebfd9068dae80b.webp(BTC price chart 2 weeks | Source: TradingViewIn 2013, that breakdown initiated an 85% fall, from around $1,150 to $150. In 2017, a similar pattern led to an 84% reduction, from nearly $20,000 to $3,100.

Most recently, in 2021, Bitcoin failed to maintain parabolic support and RSI, causing the price to fall 77%, from 69,000 down to around 15,500 dollars.

In 2025, Bitcoin fell below the multi-year support trend line at the end of August, but the RSI remained above the upward trend, maintaining hopes for recovery.

The real challenge will arise if the RSI breaks its trend support. This move could pull BTC back to the 50-week exponential moving average )EMA 50-2 weeks( near $80,000 by the end of 2025, similar to previous declines.

Bitcoin price fall is just a "fakeout"

The famous analyst BitBull describes the current breakdown fall as likely a "fakeout" )fake sign(. According to him, even a candle wick falling below $100,000 aligns with Bitcoin's previous scenarios, to shake off weak-handed investors before preparing for a strong recovery.

!)[bitcoin]https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-8417fde3cc04341a99914e5b092179df.webp(BTC price chart 2 weeks | Source: BitBullIn that sense, the price level of $80,000–$100,000 could be the target for the bears and at the same time a potential launchpad for the next upward movement.

Market analyst SuperBro also agrees with this view, citing the Pi Cycle Top model, which has been a reliable signal for previous cycle peaks of Bitcoin.

!)[bitcoin]https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-2b844097c59ec1bceaa140b9c4bff4bf.webp(Pi Cycle Top Indicator | Source: GlassnodeThis indicator is built based on two moving averages of Bitcoin's price: the 111-day simple moving average )SMA 111( and double the 350-day simple moving average )SMA 350 x 2(.

When the SMA 111 rises faster and crosses above the SMA 350 x 2, which is slower, it signals that Bitcoin is in an overheated state. History shows that this crossover has marked major peaks in the years 2013, 2017, and 2021.

Currently, there have been no crossovers. According to SuperBro, this means that Bitcoin has not yet reached the peak of the cycle. The analyst predicts that the price of BTC will peak at $280,000.

Minh Anh