Recently, we have seen a familiar perspective emerge: "The market will no longer experience a bearish phase, but will only follow the trend of 'slow bull'". The argument presented is that there is currently strong participation from large institutions, with massive capital flows from ETF funds, banks, and financial institutions creating a "supporting force", preventing the market from collapsing as it did before.
It sounds convincing, but if we look back at history, we will see that this is not new at all. At the peak in 2021, a multitude of investors also believed that "cryptocurrency had entered an era of perpetual growth." At that time, many people thought that Bitcoin would only increase, and the concept of "bear market" no longer existed.
And then, the year 2022 was like a cold shower poured directly onto the market: all assets plummeted, many projects went bankrupt, retail investors lost confidence, and those who believed in "perpetual growth" paid a very high price.
For this reason, in the current cycle, few dare to mention the concept of "perpetual bull market" anymore. Instead, they change their expression to "slow bull – slow increase, but no fall". In fact, this is just another version of excessive optimism.
The Market Always Has Cycles
Observing throughout the history of Bitcoin and the entire crypto market, a clear rule can be seen: whenever there is a bull market, there will certainly be a bear market that follows. The issue is not whether it happens or not, but rather how long the cycle lasts and the extent of the correction, whether strong or mild.
After the bull run of 2013, Bitcoin collapsed by more than 80%. After the bull run of 2017, Bitcoin continued to fall by over 80%. After the bull run of 2021, the drop was still very strong, but it has "eased" a little.
This indicates that over time, the maturity of the market along with the participation of institutional investors may lead to a decreasing bearish range during the bear market. However, the bear market does not disappear.
Forecast for the Next Cycle
At the current time (at the end of 2025), it is clear that the bull market has not yet ended. The recent corrections are opportunities for investors to re-accumulate, rather than signs of the end of the cycle. However, as the cash flow gradually runs out, and expectations become overly inflated, the bear market will certainly return.
The difference is: if in 2022 Bitcoin fell to 15,000 USD, then in the next cycle, the bottom of the bear market could be much higher. It is estimated that the likelihood of Bitcoin maintaining above 70,000 USD during the next recession is high. This reflects the rule: each collapse after a bull market has a higher bottom than the last time.
Conclusion
"Permanent growth" or "slow bull" are just painted stories to maintain excitement. In reality, the market cycle is inevitable. The bull market will eventually make way for a bearish market. The positive point is: as time goes on, the bearish market becomes less severe, and the bottom levels keep getting higher.
Smart investors do not chase the illusion of "No More Winter" but should take advantage of the cycles to have a reasonable buying and selling strategy.
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Don't Trust the Slow Bull: The Bear Market Will Return and Sweep Everything Away
Recently, we have seen a familiar perspective emerge: "The market will no longer experience a bearish phase, but will only follow the trend of 'slow bull'". The argument presented is that there is currently strong participation from large institutions, with massive capital flows from ETF funds, banks, and financial institutions creating a "supporting force", preventing the market from collapsing as it did before. It sounds convincing, but if we look back at history, we will see that this is not new at all. At the peak in 2021, a multitude of investors also believed that "cryptocurrency had entered an era of perpetual growth." At that time, many people thought that Bitcoin would only increase, and the concept of "bear market" no longer existed. And then, the year 2022 was like a cold shower poured directly onto the market: all assets plummeted, many projects went bankrupt, retail investors lost confidence, and those who believed in "perpetual growth" paid a very high price. For this reason, in the current cycle, few dare to mention the concept of "perpetual bull market" anymore. Instead, they change their expression to "slow bull – slow increase, but no fall". In fact, this is just another version of excessive optimism. The Market Always Has Cycles Observing throughout the history of Bitcoin and the entire crypto market, a clear rule can be seen: whenever there is a bull market, there will certainly be a bear market that follows. The issue is not whether it happens or not, but rather how long the cycle lasts and the extent of the correction, whether strong or mild. After the bull run of 2013, Bitcoin collapsed by more than 80%. After the bull run of 2017, Bitcoin continued to fall by over 80%. After the bull run of 2021, the drop was still very strong, but it has "eased" a little. This indicates that over time, the maturity of the market along with the participation of institutional investors may lead to a decreasing bearish range during the bear market. However, the bear market does not disappear. Forecast for the Next Cycle At the current time (at the end of 2025), it is clear that the bull market has not yet ended. The recent corrections are opportunities for investors to re-accumulate, rather than signs of the end of the cycle. However, as the cash flow gradually runs out, and expectations become overly inflated, the bear market will certainly return. The difference is: if in 2022 Bitcoin fell to 15,000 USD, then in the next cycle, the bottom of the bear market could be much higher. It is estimated that the likelihood of Bitcoin maintaining above 70,000 USD during the next recession is high. This reflects the rule: each collapse after a bull market has a higher bottom than the last time. Conclusion "Permanent growth" or "slow bull" are just painted stories to maintain excitement. In reality, the market cycle is inevitable. The bull market will eventually make way for a bearish market. The positive point is: as time goes on, the bearish market becomes less severe, and the bottom levels keep getting higher. Smart investors do not chase the illusion of "No More Winter" but should take advantage of the cycles to have a reasonable buying and selling strategy.