XRP: After the "Carrot Stick" Disappears, Will the Rise Continue?

Over the past century, no asset has compared to stocks in terms of annual growth returns. However, if we consider only the last decade, cryptocurrencies have far surpassed the S&P 500 in profitability. Bitcoin (BTC) remains the pioneer coin, but in the past 12 months, XRP has been the most prominent name in the large digital asset group. As of the end of August 2025, XRP has increased by nearly 396% – almost five times, while Bitcoin has "only" increased by about 84%. Clearly, expectations and an excited sentiment are the main factors driving the rise of XRP, rather than fundamental financial factors as in the stock market. XRP Kicks Off 2025 With A Series Of Advantages Starting from November 2024, almost every factor will be in favor of XRP: Donald Trump's Victory: He is considered the most crypto-friendly president, even mentioning the idea of creating a "strategic Bitcoin reserve." The Genius Act: The new law sets transparency standards for stablecoins, indirectly indicating that the U.S. government is ready to ease legal barriers to crypto. Expectations for the spot ETF for XRP: Following the success of the Bitcoin ETF, many investors believe that if the XRP ETF is approved by the SEC (expected in October 2025), a massive inflow of capital will flow into the market. Ending the SEC – Ripple lawsuit: After 5 years of tension, both parties have agreed to end the appeal process. This is the event that the community has been waiting for a long time. However, the end of this "big story" has opened up a new risk: there is no longer a strong enough catalyst to keep the fire going for XRP. The Hard-to-Hide Issues of XRP Theoretically, XRP is designed to optimize cross-border payments: confirmation speed of 3–5 seconds, transaction costs only a fraction of a cent, surpassing the traditional SWIFT system which takes several days and has high fees. But in reality, there are many limitations: Not mandatory to use XRP Banks can use Ripple's payment network (RippleNet) without needing to use XRP as an intermediary token. This makes the actual demand for XRP difficult to grow in proportion to its price. The scale of adoption is still limited. Currently, SWIFT has over 11,000 financial institutions worldwide using it, while RippleNet only has about 300 organizations. This significant gap indicates that XRP still faces many challenges to gain market share. Lack of independent value. Unlike Bitcoin, which can be considered a means of payment or an inflation-resistant asset, XRP revolves solely around its role as a payment intermediary on the Ripple network. If this role is not expanded, the intrinsic value of XRP will struggle to hold up. Strong competitors. Solana (SOL) offers transaction speeds and costs that surpass those of XRP. Stellar (XLM) also has comparable payment processing capabilities. This undermines the exclusive position of XRP. After "Good News", Is It Time to Take Profits? The Wall Street proverb "Buy the rumor, sell the news" may hold true for XRP at this time. For many years, the lawsuit with the SEC has been the "carrot stick" keeping the community hopeful. But now that the story has come to a close, profit-taking pressure may become the prevailing trend. Of course, if the XRP ETF is actually approved and RippleNet expands cooperation with many large organizations, the price of XRP may continue to benefit. But without new driving forces, it is highly likely that XRP will face a correction period after the hot rally of 2024–2025. 👉 In summary: XRP has had a brilliant year thanks to the convergence of "timely - advantageous location - harmonious people". However, as the pivotal events have passed, the big question