The market is almost certain that the Fed will start cutting interest rates this week, with the mainstream prediction being a reduction of 25 basis points, but there are also voices discussing whether they will make a big move and cut directly by 50 basis points! If this happens, it would definitely be a deep-water bomb in the financial world this year💣.

For me, interest rate cuts are not just changes in the interest rate numbers, but rather a loosening of the liquidity gate. The crypto market, as a field that is highly dependent on capital sentiment and risk appetite, is likely to welcome a new wave of volatility opportunities📈. In simple terms: money has become cheaper, and risk assets are more "attractive".

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🔍 My view on the extent of this interest rate cut:

I believe that 25 basis points remains the baseline scenario, but we must be wary of a "hawkish rate cut"—that is, a rate cut accompanied by cautious statements. If there is an unexpected cut of 50 basis points, it would be a clear signal of easing and could ignite the market instantly.

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₿ Prediction of the short-term impact of interest rate cuts on cryptocurrencies:

· Bitcoin (BTC): High probability of a short-term upward breakout. With liquidity expectations and dual attributes of hedging and speculation, below $60,000 might be a good layout position.
· Ethereum (ETH): Following BTC closely, but more strongly dependent on overall market sentiment and the subsequent developments of the Ethereum ETF.
· Altcoins: The differentiation will intensify. Mainstream altcoins (such as SOL, AVAX) may rebound quickly, but lower market cap coins still need to be cautious of volatility risks.

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📅 Historical Context: Will this be the starting point of a new market trend?

Looking back at the interest rate cut cycle in 2019, Bitcoin rose over 25% within three months after the rate cut. However, it is important to note that the macro environment has changed: there is an election year now, and inflation has not yet completely cooled down.
I believe this rate cut could be an important catalyst, but it may not necessarily be the "starting point for a surge." More attention should be paid to the Fed's subsequent rhetoric and economic data supporting the medium to long-term trends of Bitcoin and Ethereum.

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