As the September 30 deadline approaches, the U.S. Congress has yet to reach an agreement on the budget, casting a shadow of government shutdown over Washington. However, this shutdown could bring about unprecedented consequences—a vacuum period for economic data.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has released guidelines indicating that it will completely cease operations during the shutdown. This means that the release of several important economic indicators may be delayed or canceled, including the highly anticipated September non-farm payroll report and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Additionally, key economic indicators such as retail sales, Producer Price Index (PPI), and trade data may also not be published on time.

This situation will have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve's policy-making. As one economist vividly metaphorized: "You cannot fly blindly in thick fog." The Federal Reserve just completed its first interest rate cut of the year in September and is now closely monitoring economic data to determine the future direction of policy. If there is a lack of CPI and employment data before the October monetary policy meeting, it will be difficult for the Federal Reserve to make accurate judgments. This may force the decision-making to shift from "data dependence" to "subjective speculation."

Historically, the government shutdown in 2013 caused the BLS to delay the release of the employment report and CPI data. If this shutdown becomes a reality, the Federal Reserve's meeting on October 28-29 will face a serious information gap.

This potential "economic data black hole" not only affects policy-making but may also trigger fluctuations in the financial markets. Investors and analysts alike rely on this data to assess economic health and make investment decisions. In the absence of reliable data, the market may become more unstable.

As time goes by, all parties are closely watching the movements of Congress. Whether a compromise can be reached at the last moment to avoid a government shutdown that could have far-reaching effects on economic decisions and the market has become the most concerning issue at present.