#BTC

There is a panic atmosphere in the market today, but there is no need for exaggerated conspiracy theories. The subject is actually very simple: those famous employment figures.

On the first Friday of each month, the announced figures make headlines, and the market reacts instantly. But it should not be forgotten: this number is not a final fact, but its initial raw form. In other words, it is actually the introductory paragraph of the story. It will be updated multiple times over time.

The process proceeds as follows:
• The first reported data is prepared based on responses from only a portion of the businesses.
• The figure is recalculated with additional responses received a month later.
• It is revised once again two months later and at that point becomes the most reliable estimate.
• The actual finalization occurs once a year, when compared to the tax records of employers. However, this also happens with approximately a year delay.

So why is there so much differentiation happening?
• Because the participation rate is low in the initial phase, especially businesses are responding late to surveys after the pandemic.
• Seasonal effects, factors such as hiring during holiday periods or summer months are influencing the data.
• And of course, timing. The month when recruitments are planned can be different from the month they actually occur.

The main point of attention is this: in pre-recession periods, the direction of these revisions is generally downward. The fundamental reason behind the panic atmosphere we are experiencing today is this expectation.