Good afternoon, I am a data analyst.

2 Sept

BTC is behaving exactly as I anticipated yesterday: under pressure and hovering around 112,000. Let's analyze this situation.

Looking at the hourly chart, as we approach 112k, the MA360 becomes our main technical resistance. I notice an interesting divergence between volume and price. The most revealing thing: the volume on declines is extremely weak, a sign that even the bulls are cautious. I wouldn't be surprised to see another test of the MA360 and, if this effectively presses with great volume ( especially with a long upper shadow candle ), we could see an accelerated drop today.

In the 4-hour framework, we are facing critical pressure at the MA90. The candles show a balanced pattern between wicks and real body, highlighting the battle between bulls and bears. For now, the bulls have the advantage, but breaking the MA90 will be decisive in determining the direction of the day.

If the bulls manage to surpass the MA90, we could see a push towards 115k. Otherwise, prepare for a sharp decline.

The daily chart is clearly forming a top in M. The current rebound is hitting against MA15/90, forming the neckline of this formation. I foresee multiple tests of this level, and when the volume weakens during these attempts, a new bearish momentum will come.

From the Fibonacci perspective, we face resistance at 0.236. With so many overlapping technical pressures and without strong bullish catalysts, the likelihood of a decline is considerably amplified.

The MACD is attempting to form its third golden cross below the 0 axis. If it fails, we will inevitably fall. Even if it succeeds but the DIF and DEA do not cross the 0 axis, we will remain bearish.

This week, a federal court questioned the legality of a certain tariff policy. Today it was announced that the Supreme Court will be asked to expedite a ruling on global tariffs. This represents a significant inflationary risk. On the other hand, if these tariffs are declared illegal, we could see a rebound in BTC.

The gold reaching historical highs today suggests greater risk aversion, possibly anticipating political conflicts or economic recession. Assets like stocks and bitcoin could suffer.

The US manufacturing PMI below expectations reflects the tariff damage to the industry and signals risks of recession and inflation, driving safe havens like gold to new highs.

This Friday, the non-farm payrolls will be released, which are crucial ahead of the Fed's decision on the 17th. If BTC does not surpass its resistances before this data, we could see a crash on Friday.

Remember: technical levels are references, but news can destroy any pattern. Stay alert.

🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 Resistance: 112k-115k Support: 111k-108k-107400-105k