Arabica coffee for December has risen today by +0.75 (+0.20%), while robusta coffee ICE for November has dropped -134 (-3.18%).

Coffee prices are showing a mixed behavior today, with robusta experiencing a sharp decline to its lowest level in 6 weeks. Low ICE coffee inventories are supporting prices. However, robusta rebounded today as it is forecasted that the remnants of typhoon Ragasa will not reach Vietnam's coffee-growing regions, alleviating concerns about potential damage to the country’s coffee crops from strong winds and rains.

The imposition of a 50% tariff on U.S. imports from Brazil has caused a marked decrease in ICE coffee inventories, a bullish factor for prices. The arabica stocks monitored by ICE fell on Wednesday to a 17.5-month low of 601,717 bags. The ICE robusta coffee inventories dropped to a 1.75-month low of 6,464 lots last Friday. U.S. buyers are canceling new purchase contracts for Brazilian coffee beans due to the 50% tariffs imposed on U.S. imports from Brazil, which is reducing the supply in the U.S., as approximately one-third of the country's unroasted coffee comes from Brazil.

On Tuesday, arabica coffee prices fell to a 1-month low due to rain in Brazil that eased dry conditions. Somar Meteorologia of Brazil indicated that rainfall in Minas Gerais will continue for the rest of the week.

An abundant harvest of robusta coffee in Vietnam is putting downward pressure on prices. Vietnam's coffee production for 2025/26 is expected to increase by +6% year-on-year to 1.76 million metric tons, or 29.4 million bags, a four-year high. Additionally, the General Statistics Office of Vietnam reported on September 8 that coffee exports from January to August 2025 rose by +7.8% year-on-year to 1.141 million metric tons. Vietnam is the world's largest producer of robusta coffee.

Last Tuesday, the Arabica coffee for December reached a record high and the closest delivery Arabica (U25) recorded a 7-month high, while the robusta rose to a 3-week high. Coffee prices increased due to a lack of rain in Brazil's coffee regions ahead of the critical flowering period for coffee plants. Somar Meteorologia reported on Monday that Minas Gerais, Brazil's largest Arabica coffee-producing area, received 10.5 mm of rain during the week ending September 20, only 73% of the historical average. September is the critical flowering period for coffee plants in Brazil.

Coffee prices also received support last Tuesday after the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) raised the likelihood of a La Niña climate system in the southern hemisphere from October to December to 71%, which could bring excessively dry weather to Brazil and harm the 2026/27 coffee harvest. Brazil is the world's largest producer of arabica coffee.

Coffee prices found support after Conab, Brazil's crop forecasting agency, reduced its estimate for the 2025 Brazilian arabica coffee crop on September 4 by -4.9% to 35.2 million bags, down from a May forecast of 37.0 million bags. Conab also lowered its estimate for Brazil's total coffee production for 2025 by 0.9% to 55.2 million bags, down from a May estimate of 55.7 million bags.

As a bullish factor, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported on September 3 that global coffee exports in July decreased by -1.6% year-on-year to 11.6 million bags, and cumulative exports from October to July decreased by -0.3% year-on-year to 115.615 million bags.

The reduction in Brazil's exports is supporting prices. On August 6, Brazil's Ministry of Commerce reported that Brazil's unroasted coffee exports in July fell by -20.4% year-on-year to 161,000 metric tons. In bullish related news, the exporting group Cecafe reported that Brazil's green coffee exports in July fell by -28% year-on-year to 2.4 million bags. Cecafe reported that arabica exports in July fell by -21% year-on-year, while robusta exports plummeted by -49% year-on-year. Cecafe said that Brazil's coffee exports in July fell by -28% to 2.7 million bags, and that coffee shipments during January-July fell by -21% to 22.2 million bags.

Harvest pressures in Brazil are bearish for coffee prices after the Brazilian coffee cooperative Cooxupe announced on Wednesday that the harvest among its members was 98.9% complete as of September 12. Cooxupe is Brazil's largest coffee cooperative and the country's most important exporting group.

The Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) of the USDA projected on June 25 that global coffee production in 2025/26 will increase by +2.5% year-on-year to a record 178.68 million bags, with a decrease of -1.7% in arabica production to 97.022 million bags and an increase of +7.9% in robusta production to 81.658 million bags. The FAS forecasted that Brazil's coffee production in 2025/26 will increase by +0.5% year-on-year to 65 million bags and that Vietnam's coffee production in 2025/26 will increase by 6.9% year-on-year to a four-year high of 31 million bags. The FAS predicts that the ending stocks for 2025/26 will increase by +4.9% to 22.819 million bags from 21.752 million bags in 2024/25. However, Volcafe is projecting a global arabica coffee deficit for 2025/26 of -8.5 million bags, larger than the deficit of -5.5 million bags for 2024/25 and the fifth consecutive year of deficits.