Interpret the current polarization of the alts market and $BTC .

There have been some noteworthy changes in the market today. As I have always emphasized, the crash on October 11th was a key turning point for the entire cycle — the real collapse of mid to low market cap coins also completed at the low point on that day. Since then, market confidence has been continuously tested, leveraged positions have been liquidated layer by layer, and in the end, only those who steadfastly hold spot positions remain.
And now, the situation is starting to get delicate: the reaction of the mid to low market cap sectors is significantly more sensitive than that of the mainstream coins. This is somewhat ironic – market sentiment has dropped to freezing point, and no one is mentioning altcoin season anymore; everyone thought hope was completely shattered. However, these mid to small market cap coins are showing the first signs of recovery, and although their momentum is minimal, they can still pull off an unexpected rebound. Meanwhile, mainstream coins like Bitcoin, Ethereum, BNB, and SOL are still retesting the low of October 10 and even continue to set new lows.
This is precisely a typical characteristic of a market bottom: sentiment is extremely pessimistic, leverage has been cleared out, and what remains are calm spot funds. Liquidity is still scarce, that is a fact – although there is capital inflow, the overall "blood volume" of the market is far from sufficient to support a comprehensive rally. However, the critical point of sentiment has arrived: despair, anger, and doubt have almost become a consensus, and this consensus is precisely what nurtures a turnaround.
I still believe that some high-quality alts had already found their true bottom on October 11. That extreme low point is almost impossible to break through again in the short term. It's a typical "collapse needle"—a kind of oversold crash that wiped out all the floating capital. The repeated fluctuations, rebounds, and retests in the following weeks are all part of the bottom-building process. Due to the severe drop on that day, the daily volatility remains significant—oscillations of 10% to 30% are normal. This extreme volatility actually reflects a serious lack of liquidity.
Of course, this is not a "buy now" signal. There is still time and many uncertainties. I want to emphasize: if this is truly the bottom, you will know it. The confirmation signals from the market will be very obvious. Instead of blindly betting, it's better to wait for confirmation before taking action. The real big market movements happen not by acting a step earlier, but after confirmation.
#加密市场回调