Bitcoin falls to $107K: Is institutional demand withdrawing?

BTC opened the week with everything in red. The price collapsed to $107,000, wiping out all the weekend gains and leaving traders more than frustrated.

The strange thing: Wall Street rises, Bitcoin falls

Here comes the interesting part. U.S. stocks opened in the green due to good trade news between the U.S. and China. Bitcoin? It moved in the opposite direction. The correlation with the Nasdaq that used to work years ago is now completely broken.

Since December 2024, BTC has practically decoupled from the traditional risk market. It now closely follows mega-cap tech, according to macro analyst Jordi Visser.

The minimums at $101K are on the radar

Traders are talking about consolidation. Analyst CrypNuevo points out that this could be one of the worst trading months of the quarter.

Technical data:

• Key support: $101,150 ( 50-week EMA moving average )
• Interesting liquidity: Zone of $105-106K and above in $112K
• Risk: If it falls, it could reach up to $98,500 according to the NVM Ratio

The real alarm: Institutions are leaving

For the first time in 7 months, institutional net buying fell below the daily supply from mining. That's “not good,” according to Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments.

The specific numbers:

• Bitcoin spot ETFs: 3 consecutive days of net outflows until October 31
• iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT): Contributed with more than $500 million of the total withdrawn
• Active BTC addresses: Fell 26.1% vs. November 2024

Retail Disappeared

Retail investors practically fled. With a nearly 20% drop from October highs, on-chain activity collapsed. Fewer active addresses = less participation = possible delay in the natural end of the cycle.

Is there a contrary signal on the horizon?

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is in “fear” territory. The Santiment platform suggests that this extreme panic could be a contrary signal: a relief rally is likely when the FUD is at its peak.

Predictions on Polymarket? They only assign a 33% chance that BTC will end November above $120K.

The Fed factor that nobody mentions

With the U.S. government shutdown, inflation data is missing. The Fed maintains an increasingly “hawkish” tone. The CME Group's FedWatch tool places the odds of a cut in December at just 63% (was a guarantee not long ago).

Summary: BTC in tense consolidation, institutional demand weakening, retail in panic, and the Fed not giving clear signals. The support at $101K will be critical in the upcoming sessions.