The U.S. federal government finally opened for business after 43 days, but what was the result? The market reacted tepidly, and what should fall is still falling. Bitcoin once broke the $101,000 mark, and there hasn't been any significant rebound in the U.S. stock market or the crypto world. Many people are waiting for the "government restart" news for favourable information, but the reality is — everyone may have bet on the wrong question.

The root of the standstill actually lies in the wrangling between the two parties. The Democrats want to extend the tax credit policy, while the Republicans insist on cutting the budget and controlling spending, with neither side willing to compromise on healthcare expenditures. Although the temporary funding bill has passed, the core contradiction remains unresolved, and the market is well aware of this.

During this standstill, the performance of various assets has completely diverged: the three major U.S. stock indices surprisingly rose by 2.9% to 3.5%, and gold soared by 8.5% to reach a new high. In contrast, the crypto market suffered, with Bitcoin falling by 14% and Ethereum dropping by 20%. What does this indicate? It indicates that investors have completely different risk aversion logic for different assets.

Many people think that once the government opens the door, liquidity will return and coin prices will naturally soar. In fact, historical data does not support this logic at all—there has never been a hard-and-fast rule in the crypto market that "government restart必涨". The market has underestimated the impact of the standstill while also overestimating the favourable information brought by the restart.

What really deserves attention is when the TGA account will start to release funds. The Treasury general account has accumulated hundreds of billions of dollars in spending that hasn't gone out during the shutdown period. Once this money enters the market circulation, it will be a real liquidity injection. What the market is waiting for now is not a policy statement, but a tangible improvement in the funding situation.

Simply put, the government's restart is just a formal node. Investors are currently more concerned about three things: when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, how to solve the structural problems within the crypto industry, and when TGA will actually inject money into the market. Simply chasing the heat of policy events is no longer effective; the market is re-prioritizing the driving factors for various assets.