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Hunter Horsley: The four-year cycle will be broken due to "reflexivity", and 2026 is still undefined.

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On November 16, Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley posted that here are the things I have observed happening every four-year cycle: General Opinion: People believe in the four-year cycle, so 2026 will be a year of Bitcoin fall; First Order Effect: Therefore, people will start selling in 2025 to avoid the market downturn year; Second Order Effect: The sellers in 2025 cause 2025 to be a year of fall, thus breaking the four-year cycle; Third Order Effect: 2026 remains undefined, but the four-year cycle is broken. Recently, Hunter Horsley stated, “The four-year cycle is a thing of the past; since the launch of Bitcoin Spot ETF, we have entered a new market structure: new participants, new dynamics, new reasons for people to buy and sell. I think we have likely experienced nearly 6 months of Bear Market and are about to emerge from it. The current development environment for Crypto Assets has never been so favorable.”

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