#特朗普撤销农产品关税 The government shutdown has finally ended, and the long-awaited September US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data is about to explode. Now, the gold price is awkwardly stuck at 2080 dollars, while domestic gold in Shanghai is also hovering around 930 yuan. The question arises—will this wave of data push the gold price directly to the previous high of 4380, or is this rebound coming to an end?

First, let's talk about the bullish logic. Goldman Sachs has given a pretty harsh prediction, stating that the US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) in October may show the first negative growth since December 2020. This is not just baseless; you can see that the data from the private sector is already cooling down, with the number of layoffs skyrocketing to three times that of the same period last year. The market's expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has risen to 44.4%, and global central banks and gold ETFs continue to buy. Technically, if it can hold above the resistance level of 2035, the space from 2160 to 2380 will open up.

But the risks cannot be ignored. Gold is still struggling in a downward trend, and the support level at 1950 is a lifeline; if it breaks, the downward momentum may restart. The dollar and US Treasury yields could rebound at any time. If the US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data is stronger than expected, the rate cut expectations will directly cool off, and gold will surely suffer.

$BTC $ETH $ZEC These crypto assets are also watching macro data. Market fluctuations this week are expected to be significant; gold will either break through 2035 to challenge the previous high or drop below 1950, ending the rebound. The first major US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) release after the data vacuum is worth paying attention to, as every number counts. We will know on Friday whether gold continues to rise or turns down.