Recently, I saw a major brokerage firm throw out a heavyweight viewpoint: this round of the bull run for gold is not over yet, and it might surge to 5000 dollars per ounce next year. Currently, the gold price stands at over 4100 dollars, and many people feel that "it has already risen crazily", but to truly understand this market trend, one must first clarify what gold really is—it is not an ordinary commodity at all, but more like the "last anchor" in the hands of global capital.

Over the past two years, central banks around the world have been scrambling to hoard gold. This is not about making money, but fundamentally about leaving a way out for themselves. U.S. Treasury bonds are the cornerstone of the global financial system, and the U.S. dollar is the dominant settlement currency, but this game is becoming increasingly unstable: the Federal Reserve's policies are erratic, the U.S. fiscal deficit keeps growing, and geopolitical conflicts erupt every now and then. When the traditional financial system is full of uncertainties, gold, as a hard currency that is not dependent on any country and has no counterparty risk, naturally becomes a "family heirloom level" allocation in the eyes of institutions and ordinary people.

A look at history shows that the end of a gold bull run requires two conditions: first, the Federal Reserve's attitude must completely turn hawkish, initiating a long-term rate hike cycle; second, the U.S. economy must genuinely recover, with inflation kept in check and growth assured. But what is the current situation? The rate-cutting cycle has just begun, inflation is still fluctuating, and the scale of U.S. debt has already soared past $38 trillion and continues to expand. Until systemic risks are resolved, gold's "safe-haven premium" cannot be reduced. This round of rise is not merely price speculation, but a reconfiguration of the underlying logic of global asset allocation.

Think from a different perspective: if the central bank is hoarding gold to hedge against the potential risks of US treasury bonds blowing up, then the reasonable market value of gold should be calculated based on the size of US treasuries. At the current price level, it might just be the beginning.