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Last night, BTC broke through 93000 and ETH broke through 3000, setting the indicators; the future of the crypto world will be determined in the next three weeks!
With the end of the U.S. government shutdown, the market is refocusing on the backlog of macro data and the impact of this data on the Federal Reserve's December interest rate meeting. Currently, both the technical and sentiment aspects of the crypto world have reached a low point, on the verge of collapse.
The U.S. Department of Commerce announced the release time for key data:
September Non-Farm Employment: November 20
Actual salary in September: November 21
Q3 GDP revision: November 26
October personal income, expenditure and PCE: Later on November 26
October trade data: December 4
Q3 GDP final value: December 19
Personal expectations:
Before the FOMC meeting on December 9-10, the Federal Reserve is very likely to obtain complete core data such as September employment, inflation, retail sales, and the initial value of Q3 GDP.
If last night’s BTC 93000 and ETH 3004 were false breakdowns, then the correct scenario is: The Fed's dovish officials begin to speak out this week based on the data release to pave the way for a rate cut in December.
Although there is currently only a little over 40% probability of a rate cut, I still believe that a rate cut is highly likely in December, because most of the hawkish officials who have recently spoken do not have voting power.
12=7+1+4
Therefore, it is essential to pay close attention to the release dates of the missing unemployment rate and PCE data during the halt period. It's like the Hillary Step of Mount Everest - the most critical turning point up and down this year! #美联储会议纪要将公布