The latest speech delivered by the Fed Vice Chair reveals several intriguing signals. If you've been following the impact of macro policies on the crypto world recently, this statement might be more important than you think.

The vice chairman immediately set the tone for the job market by cooling it down—indicating that the supply-demand relationship is being rebalanced and that the policy rate is approaching neutral levels. More importantly, he mentioned that there is now a need to shift to a "cautious" mode. This wording is subtle and typically means that policymakers are beginning to consider adjusting their current stance.

Several core points are worth noting: First, the risk of rising inflation has significantly weakened. Even though tariffs may cause short-term price fluctuations, they are likely to have only a temporary impact. Second, the balance of economic risks is beginning to tilt, with concerns about the job market replacing inflation as the new focus of attention. The most interesting statement is—current interest rates are still restrictive. In translation, this means: interest rates may be too high.

Understanding the subtext, the vice chairman is actually leaving the door open for a rate cut in December. He specifically emphasized that the data available before the next meeting is limited, which sounds like a precautionary measure for the market: as long as the subsequent data supports it, a rate cut is entirely possible. The overall stance is dovish, but remains cautiously observant.

What are the key variables now? It's not what the officials say anymore, but the upcoming non-farm employment data. If the numbers weaken and meet the preconditions for interest rate cuts, then the probability of a policy shift in December will increase sharply. For the crypto market, this could mean an improvement in liquidity expectations, and Bitcoin may welcome a rebound opportunity.

The non-farm payroll data to be released this Thursday evening could be a turning point in determining the short-term market direction. Friends holding coins are advised to pay close attention to this timing.